Predictors of Unauthorized Migration to the U.S.: Exposure to Violence and Conflict (WITHDRAWN)

Background/Purpose:  In FY 2013, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) apprehended almost 15,000 families. Those numbers nearly tripled to approximately 66,000 families in the following fiscal year (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2014). The changing migration patterns, increased reports of endemic violence, in addition to the increasing reliance on detention as an immigration enforcement strategy, prompt the reevaluation of the salience of violence for unauthorized migration. The current immigration enforcement strategy is guided by the assumption that greater surveillance and punitive measures will discourage unauthorized individuals from attempting to enter into the U.S. (Cornelius and Salehyan 2007). Not only does detention neither deter migration nor address issues of violence, but it may also compound past traumatic experiences and lead to further abuses and exploitation (Sampson, Mitchell, & Bowring, 2011). 

Leading research in migration studies tends to focus on forced migratory movements or the migration of unaccompanied children, without addressing the effects of exposure to violence among asylum seekers and migrants. Based on a threat-based decision-making framework, I hypothesized that exposure to violence, measured by homicide rate in country of origin and level of organized conflict, is a significant predictor of apprehension (i.e., arrest) rate, as a proxy for unauthorized migration. Though typically invoked to describe refugee migration, this model may be expanded to describe unauthorized migration motivated by threat and following exposure to endemic violence.

Methods: Using secondary data, a multiple regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis. The analysis included macro-level indicators by country (n = 157) for distance to the U.S., homicide rate (UN Office on Drugs and Crime Global Study on Homicide, 2013), level of violent conflict (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2014), Gross National Income per capita in purchasing power parity, and income inequality to predict apprehension rates by country. Apprehension and inadmissibility data were obtained from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics for FY 2013. Country-level data for all variables were gathered from publicly available and reliable sources.

Results: Findings indicate that the homicide rate in country of origin is a significant predictor of unauthorized migration, when accounting for distance and economic factors, such as income inequality and Gross National Income per capita. The model predicts that a 1% increase in homicide rate leads to an increase in apprehension rate by .41%, when accounting for other variables in the model.

Conclusions and Implications: The results provide empirical evidence of the salience of violence as a predictor of unauthorized migration, with implications for the development of immigration policies, practices related to detention, especially children and families, and the policies and practices of immigrant-serving organizations and human service providers. Considering the endemic violence many families and children are fleeing, collaboration with and funding for community-based violence prevention programs are critically needed, particularly for children at risk of violence. Ultimately, these findings can generate greater awareness of the social and global implications of violence and contribute to the ongoing dialogue to develop alternative and comprehensive policies.