Introduction: There is substantial evidence indicating that victims of physical abuse and neglect are at an increased risk of engaging in delinquent behavior. However, there is much researchers and policy makers don't know about the connections between child maltreatment and juvenile delinquency. The current study addresses this gap in knowledge by investigating the trajectories of delinquent offending for adolescents in foster care. We focus particular attention on the role of mental health and academic achievement. Mental health problems are widely recognized as risk factors that increase the likelihood of delinquency among youth and the prevalence of such problems among dependent populations exceeds that in the general population. Researchers estimate that up to 85% of children entering foster care have significant mental health problems. Despite these high rates, the extent to which mental health problems contribute to the development and persistence of delinquent behavior in the child welfare system is largely unknown. Regarding academic achievement, there is a broad literature connecting poor academic performance and high rates of delinquency.

The current study makes a unique contribution because the dependency – delinquency literature seems to end once dependent youth enter the juvenile justice system. To date, there are no studies that investigate the trajectories of offending for dependent youth. In the general delinquent population, the early onset of offending is associated with an increased likelihood of chronic, persistent and violent offending. It's important to determine and understand the nature and trajectory of offending for dependent youth.

Methods and Results: The sample includes 294 older foster care wards. On average, youth were 16.8 years old at termination from foster care and 23 years old at time of data collection (arrest records). Forty-six percent of the sample is African American and 9% is Hispanic. Overall, 45% experienced one subsequent arrest. A semi parametric, group-based modeling technique was used to develop trajectories of delinquency. This technique allows for cross-group differences in the shape of developmental trajectories. Three groups were identified: non offenders, infrequent offenders and persistent delinquent offenders. We use multi-nomial logistic regression to investigate differences between these three groups. Youth with mental health problems were more likely to be classified in the persistent delinquent group. Youth reporting high levels of academic achievement were more likely to be classified as non-offenders.

Conclusions and Implications: The results indicate that a substantial proportion of older foster care wards are arrested at least once subsequent to discharge from the foster care system. The risk of being a persistent delinquent offender was significantly increased for foster youth with mental health problems. In contrast, children with higher levels of academic achievement were more likely to avoid contact with the juvenile justice system entirely. Thus, if child welfare systems are to not only prevent the development of delinquent behavior but also prevent the persistent nature of delinquent offending, it seems necessary to address the mental health problems of foster youth and increase or strengthen levels of academic achievement.