Purpose: Since the 9/11 terrorist's attacks in 2001 safety has become a major concern, often rivaling that of economic development. Dahrendorf (1959) notes that communities tend to spend more resources, tangible and intangible, on concerns that stakeholders are currently supporting. For instance, if more stakeholders support economic development compared to those supporting safety, the government will be inclined to enact policies facilitating economic development and thus people in the community are more likely to devote more resources to economic development. This study tests hypotheses from conflict theory regarding the distribution of resources to community safety and economic development. The main hypotheses tested are: 1) given finite resources, achievement in one area of concern is inversely related to achievement in another area of concern (Hall, 1991); 2) given finite resources, the more stakeholders take action for a particular issue, the higher degree of attainment (Dahrendorf, 1959).

Methods: This study is based on a statistically average sized community in the Mid-west. Data are drawn from two sources: 1) in-depth interviews with key informants; 2) archival records over fifteen years (1989-2003). In-depth interviews were conducted with key decision-makers and stakeholders from city government, community-based nonprofits, and for-profits in the community. Archival data includes annual revenues, city council meeting minutes, census bureau data, and the like. Based on the 15-year time-series data, the hypotheses were tested in a path model using LISREL and in a simulation model using VENSIM.

Results: In contrast to the hypotheses of conflict theory the relationship between community safety and economic development is shown to be mutually reinforcing. Both the path and simulation models confirmed a reciprocal relationship between safety and economic development. However, the simulation results provide greater utility than the path model by revealing a time lag in the effect of people's concerns about and resources allocated on safety and economic development. Concerns and resources about safety rise quickly in response to particular threats while those for economic development rise more slowly and consistently over time. These differences create lag effects that can only be observed through simulation.

Implications: This study demonstrates the importance of explicitly incorporating time delays in formulating and testing hypotheses. Although the results of the path and simulation models are consistent, the simulation model yielded more useful information. The simulation shows that because of time delays efforts to maintain levels of safety and economic development must be understood over long periods of time. The results of this study add important insights to social work research and practice, since time delays have significant implications for understanding and solving complicated social problems. The implications of this research help policy-makers in communities and decision-makers in human service organizations make adjustments in allocating resources to programs. Social work can benefit from the insights of simulation research.

Dahrendorf, R. (1959). Class and class conflict in industrial society. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Hall, R. H. (1991). Organizations: Structures, processes, & outcomes (5th ed.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.