The purpose of this quantitative study is to expand the existing base of knowledge on the long-term effects of childhood neighborhood poverty. Specifically, we examine the relationship between childhood and adult neighborhood quality, particularly for children growing up in the poorest neighborhoods. In addition, we model this relationship by using a sibling sample to reduce the potential that unobserved family factors would confound the results. While studies have shown that neighborhoods can exert independent effects on child outcomes such as education, teen pregnancy and welfare use, there is little research on the impact of childhood residency on adult neighborhood-type. Thus, our primary research question tests the entrapment hypothesis (Gramlich, Laren, & Sealand 1992), and asks whether children who grow up in the poorest neighborhoods are likely to be trapped in similar neighborhoods as adults. Further, we sought to examine whether such circumstances have differential effects for African Americans and whites.

Using a sample of 4,419 siblings from Census-linked data in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we employ fixed-effect models to examine the effects of childhood neighborhood quality on average adult neighborhood quality. The PSID is a nationally representative, longitudinal data set that has followed an original panel of 5,000 families and their off-spring since 1968. The PSID Geocode File allows us to link the data to the U.S. census for information on neighborhoods (defined here as a census tract) such as the neighborhood poverty rate, the proportion of households receiving public assistance, and the proportion of female-headed households in the neighborhood. The fixed-effect models allows us to use variability among sibling neighborhood characteristics due to residential mobility and changing neighborhood conditions to examine adult outcomes, while controlling for often unmeasured family factors such as family values or aspirations for the children of the family, parental skills, and the emotional well-being of the parents.

Our results indicate that, after controlling for an extensive set of individual and family level factors, childhood neighborhood quality is a strong predictor of adult neighborhood quality. Further, our results show that this relationship is highly non-linear for both African Americans and whites. That is, those children who grow up in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods are far more likely to live in the poorest neighborhoods during adulthood relative to those children who grew up in only slightly better neighborhoods.

The finding that neighborhood residence during childhood, net of individual and family level factors, is significantly related to adult neighborhood quality for both African Americans and whites is fundamental to social work research, policy and practice. These types of methodologically rigorous findings have the ability to help advocates reassert the role that structure plays in poverty and disadvantage. In an era of personal responsibility, an understanding of structural factors such as neighborhood quality is critical to a balanced and ethical social policy dialog.

Gramlich, E., Laren, D., & Sealand, N. 1992. Moving into and out of poor urban areas. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 11(2): 273–287.