Purpose: Juvenile probation is by far the most common consequence of juvenile court intervention in delinquency cases; more than sixty percent of young people adjudicated delinquent receive sentences that include probation. Despite its place as the primary tool for dealing with delinquency, however, relatively little is known about what makes for success in probation outcomes. This study focused on identified correlates of delinquency, focusing on alcohol and drug use and treatment, to understand characteristics and interventions associated with probation success and failure.

Methods: The study used secondary data from a unique state-level data set comprised of all youth discharged from probation during one calendar month. The data set includes demographic, service use, offending, and probation outcome data. Analyses focused on youth who were identified as abusing drugs or alcohol, comparing those who did and did not receive treatment, but also sought to control for a variety of factors. In preliminary analyses, chi-square tests examined bivariate relationships including socioeconomic status, living arrangement, history of maltreatment, gang affiliation, school status, history of psychiatric treatment, delinquency history, crime severity, age, and gender. Logistic regression models included variables significant in bivariate analyses, yielding models predicting probation failure and success.

Results: Of the 821 youth in the sample, 59 percent gave indication of a drug or alcohol problem, most of whom were identified as such at intake. Others were identified as having problems through subsequent drug screening or further assessment. Simply comparing those with and without a drug or alcohol problem found that those with a problem had significantly lower rates of successfully completing probation (61.8 percent vs. 70.3 percent). Gang membership, detachment from school, and prior delinquent acts also reduced the odds of completing probation successfully. In the first multivariate logistic model, controlling for these characteristics, those with a drug or alcohol abuse problem were slightly more than twice as likely to fail probation. The second logistic model examined the effects of treatment on those with drug and alcohol problems; of those with such problems, 31.8 percent received treatment successfully. In this latter multivariate model, controlling once again for the variables that demonstrated independent significance—gang membership, detachment from school, and prior delinquent acts—treatment was shown to be a significant factor in predicting probation success. The model, which explained 23.8 percent of the variance in probation failure, indicated that those with a drug or alcohol problem who did not receive treatment were 2.8 times as likely to fail probation as those without a drug or alcohol problem.

Implications: To more effectively deal with the problems of young offenders, policy makers and practitioners need to understand those factors that contribute to the success and failure probation, the primary intervention for this population. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and treating youth with drug or alcohol problems who are in the juvenile justice system.