Child welfare workforce issues are of current interest in both academic and practice settings especially in the light of high turnover rates (APHSA, 2004; Smith, 2005; Landsman, 2001). The WRRRP, one of 12 federally funded projects, works in 6 sites in Arizona, Colorado and Wyoming to conduct detailed organizational assessments and collaborative strategic planning aimed at improving child welfare workforce environments, and recruitment and retention outcomes. The first Organizational Assessment (Fall 2004) included a quantitative survey and focus groups. Here we report findings from the cross-site predictive analyses based on the survey data.

The workforce survey 20 scales measuring aspects of the work, the agency and the worker, and 3 retention outcomes: Job Satisfaction, Emotional Exhaustion and Intent to Stay. Many scales were used with permission from previous research. All case aids, caseworkers, supervisors and administrators were surveyed, resulting in 178 respondents (74% response rate).

The lowest rated scales are Community Support and Distributive Justice (a measure of perceived formal rewards). In addition, respondents report high levels of Child Welfare Stress related to time constraints. Scales receiving high positive ratings include Motivation, Self Efficacy, Supervisor Competence, Supervisor Support, and Professional Sharing and Support.

A two-stage multiple regression analysis examined predictors from each group (work, agency and worker) related to each retention outcome.

Significant predictors of Emotional Exhaustion are:

Promotional Opportunities (rpartial = -.410), Child Welfare Stress: Time (rpartial = .443), Child Welfare Stress: Worry (rpartial = .196), Clarity and Coherence (rpartial = -.176). R2 = .494

Significant predictors of Job Satisfaction are:

Promotional Opportunities: (Rpartial = -.387) Child Welfare Stress: Time (Rpartial = -.383) Motivation (Rpartial = .374) Clarity and Coherence (Rpartial = .248), Preparation for Work (Rpartial =.212) Child Welfare Stress: Worry (Rpartial = .209) Self Efficacy (Rpartial = .190) R2 = .697.

Significant predictors of Intent to Stay are

Promotional Opportunities (Rpartial = -.537), Worker Motivation (Rpartial = .300), and Child Welfare Stress: Time (Rpartial = -.208), R2 = .406.

Fewer perceived opportunities and higher levels of stress (time and worry) are related to increased Emotional Exhaustion, which is positively affected by increased levels of clarity and coherence in the workplace. All variables predictive of Emotional Exhaustion are also predictive of Job Satisfaction with the addition of Self Efficacy, Motivation and Preparation for Work. The most parsimonious model predicts Intent to Stay, with opportunities and time stress having negative effects and motivation having a positive effect.

We will discuss the implications for improvement of child welfare organizational environments and workforce selection processes. Clearly Promotional Opportunities (PO) and Child Welfare Stress: Time have a wide impact on retention outcomes. Both are significant predictors of all three retention outcomes and PO is the strongest predictor in each model. The impact of child welfare stress related to worrying about clients is of some interest. Increased levels of worry are associated with both increased Emotional Exhaustion and increased Job Satisfaction, indicating that this may characterize both the most committed staff members and those most at risk for negative personal outcomes.