Bridging Disciplinary Boundaries (January 11 - 14, 2007)


Pacific B (Hyatt Regency San Francisco)

Critical Events in the Transition to Adulthood: Using Survival Analysis to Understand the Impact of Poverty

Stephanie C. Berzin, PhD, Boston College and Allison C. De Marco, MSW, The Pennsylvania State University.

Purpose: The transition into adulthood represents a critical period in a young person's life, encompassing the school to work transition, the formation of adult relationships, leaving the home of origin, and parenthood. This transition may be difficult for all youth, however those with less social, educational, or economic capital may be at greater risk for difficulties. Changes in living patterns, age of marriage, educational attainment, and employment opportunities, and the increased length of this transition, with greater dependence on the family of origin, have potentially put vulnerable youth in an even more challenging position. Understanding what factors influence the occurrence of these events is helpful for understanding how to better help youth through this transition.

Methods: This study uses a sample of youth from The National Survey of Families and Households Waves 2 and 3 (n=1517) and their parent's data from Wave 1 related to childhood poverty, parent's education, family public assistance use, and family structure at birth. Wave 2 and 3 provided data on outcomes around home-leaving, marriage, and parenthood. Models also utilized demographic data around race, gender, age, and educational attainment. Bivariate analysis was used to examine the occurrence and timing of life events based on poverty status. Survival analyses, including Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazard models, were used to examine the occurrence and timing of outcomes.

Results: Bivariate analyses suggest that poverty is related to the occurrence and timing of leaving home, having children, and marriage. Kaplan-Meier estimation suggests 50% of youth leave home by age 19; however, few poor youth leave home after that time. Survival curves on marriage indicate 50% of poor youth were married by age 30 and 50% of non-poor youth were married by age 28. Survival curves also indicate that poor youth are more likely to become parents at a younger age. Multivariate analysis for all three events indicate that poverty has a significant impact, when controlling for other factors. As compared to non-poor youth, poor youth are less likely to marry. For both home-leaving and parenthood, the likelihood of the event varies with time, though for both outcomes poor youth have a different survival function than non-poor youth. At later ages, poor youth are less likely to leave home and to become parents. The child's gender, educational level, and race also have a significant impact on these life events.

Implications: This study is an important step in illuminating the factors that contribute to transition outcomes during emerging adulthood. Specifically, poverty is shown to have an impact on the occurrence and timing of important life events. Social work practitioners and policy makers need to be aware of these patterns and the impact that poverty has on these life transitions. Experiences during emerging adulthood can set youth up for continued success or failure throughout the lifespan therefore it is essential that social workers are made aware of what factors contribute to this time period and how to help youth negotiate this transition.