Bridging Disciplinary Boundaries (January 11 - 14, 2007)

Purpose: Child welfare managers seek to deliver the right set of services to children as early as possible to help achieve better outcomes more quickly. This requires a sound understanding of system dynamics that can at times challenge current beliefs about the child welfare system. For example, substance abuse is considered a major and widespread issue for child welfare systems around the country. Our study augments that understanding by following the temporal sequence of events (e.g., investigation, substantiation and placement) for a cohort of children who had no previous contact with the child welfare system and asks the question: Given an allegation of substance abuse, what happens next? We hypothesize that children who enter the system with an allegation of substance abuse attached to their first investigation will travel a distinct trajectory through the system. Moreover, we speculate that the trajectory followed will be influenced by the child's race and age.

Method: A longitudinal database containing foster care and child maltreatment events from a large Northeastern state is used in this analysis. The database permits an examination of discrete patterns and sequences – “child event trajectories”. We examine the incidence of substance abuse as the primary allegation among all maltreatment allegations for children with initial CPS investigations in 2001 (N=20,171) We look forward to see the degree to which that initial substance abuse allegation determined what further contact that child had with the child welfare system. Multivariate analyses refine our understanding of the relationship of system trajectories with covariates that include allegation type, age and race of the child, family structure, and county.

Findings: Substance abuse allegations account for a small fraction (5%) of initial CPS investigations in 2001. However, substance abuse profoundly affects substantiation rates. Therefore, the population of children with substance abuse allegations in their history grew as a proportion of children surviving further into the system. Additionally, race (African American) and age (infants) also affect substantiation rates. Explanatory analyses reveal that the process is complex. The models suggest stable main effects for age, race and allegation type, while the interaction effects depend upon which part of the service trajectory is being examined – substantiation or placement.

Implications: Child Welfare systems are under increasing pressure to meet the need for substance abuse services to match what is presumed to be a major problem in the system. Our study sharpens this general understanding by providing specific information about patterns and pathways associated with children who have substance abuse allegations. Identifying the course of this important trajectory, understanding its scope relative to overall system dynamics, and uncovering which children are most likely implicated can better equip system managers in their efforts to efficiently develop and deliver the correct services to the children who need them.