Bridging Disciplinary Boundaries (January 11 - 14, 2007)

Purpose: The Child Welfare Outcomes and Accountability Act (Assembly Bill 636) was developed in California as a means to carry out the state's Program Improvement Plan. AB636 requires counties to track longitudinal outcomes each quarter in addition to the Child and Family Services Review (CFSR) federally-mandated measures. The present study examined whether or not statewide child welfare performance improved according to the longitudinal outcome indicators specified in Assembly Bill 636 since the legislation took effect.

Method: The study analyzed a statewide data system containing information on all children referred to (n=2,374,641) or first entering (n=277,014) the child welfare system since 1998. Performance on 12 longitudinal outcomes for cohorts analyzed in the first reporting period of AB636 (data cut-off: July 1, 2003), was compared with performance for cohorts analyzed from the most recent reporting period (data cut-off: July 1, 2005). A percent change in performance between reporting periods was calculated for each measure.

Results: Findings from this study demonstrate modest but improved performance in every longitudinal outcome indicator tracked per AB636. Among the results are that child abuse substantiation rates declined by 7 percent, entry to care rates declined by 3 percent, placement stability increased 4 percent, reunifications within 12 months of first entry increased 1 percent, and reentry following reunification declined by 7 percent. Adoptions within 24 months of first entry increased by 29 percent. Further, multivariate analysis examines whether the improvements hold, given competing explanatory factors such as changes in case mix, that might account for the observed changes in performance.

Discussion: Longitudinal analyses indicate that California's outcome and accountability legislation has led to statewide improvements in the child welfare system. The state continues to track progress using the performance indicators examined in this study, and has several more under consideration. Policy and practice implications are discussed concerning the use of longitudinal data to evaluate child welfare system performance--and the need to temper accountability and transparency with efforts to avoid misinterpretation and misuse of public data.