Bridging Disciplinary Boundaries (January 11 - 14, 2007)

Purpose: One of the major goals of the current child welfare system is the achievement of permanency. In addition to children's placement in permanent homes such as reunification and adoption, the prevention of their re-entry into the system should be considered in the evaluation of permanency outcomes. The present study is intended to explore and identify the factors that predict children's re-entry into out-of-home care.

Method: The present study has used a longitudinal AFCARS file for Illinois, which combines AFCARS six-month submissions for the fiscal year 1998 through 2004. A total of 73,972 children are included in the analysis who had been discharged from their first episode of out-of-home care. Both binary and cox regression analysis are applied to predict which factors are related to children's re-entry into the system. The following variables are included in the model as potential predictors: a child's gender and race, a child's age at the entry into and the exit from the system, the presence and the type of a child's disability, the locality of services provided, the manner of and the reason for a child's removal, the type of the last placement before discharge, the number of placements before discharge, the length of stay in the system, and the reason for discharge.

Results: All the variables in the model except a child's gender are identified as significant predictors of a child's re-entry into the system. The rate of re-entry is significantly different between females and males in the results of the binary analysis, but a child's gender is not identified as a significant predictor in the results of the cox regression analysis. African-American and disabled children, especially those with mental disorder, are more likely to re-enter the out-of-home care. The likelihood of re-entry increases when children enter the system at a younger age or when they leave at an older age. The longer stay and the fewer number of placements while in care reduce the probability of re-entry.

Implications for practice: The child welfare services are considered successful only when children have and maintain a permanent home. Therefore, they should make every effort to prevent children's multiple removals from their original home. The predictors identified in the present study should be considered in the provision of services.