Raising Healthy Students: Middle School Predictors of High School Completion

Purpose: Approximately 75% of students in the United States graduate from high school on schedule (NCES, 2008). We know that demographics (e.g., parent's high school graduation), and school performance (grades and test scores) predict high school graduation (Newcomb et al., 2002), but less is known about what contributes to a student's chances of high school graduation over and above these standard predictors. This study examines predictors of on-time high school graduation, focusing on strengths in school and family environments and individual social and decision making skills. Understanding the factors that predict high school completion will assist prevention programs to target and strengthen the most salient influences on this developmental task. Methods: Data are from 908 students enrolled in Raising Healthy Children, a 15 year longitudinal study of students recruited from a suburban Northwest school district in 1993 when they were in 1st or 2nd grade. Seventy-three percent of the sample met the criterion for regular high school graduation (within 1 year of normal graduation time for those normally progressing). Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors of graduation controlling for demographic characteristics, standardized test scores and grades at 7th grade. Results: In the school environment, bonding to school in 7th grade was a significant predictor of high school graduation. Significant 7th grade predictors in the family environment included bonding to parents and strong parental monitoring. In the peer domain, peer antisocial behavior and prosocial behavior were significant predictors. In the individual domain we found low attention problems, cognitive decision making skills, and social competency at 7th grade were significant predictors of on-time graduation. Further analyses will explore relationships controlling for academic performance at Grade 10. Implications: Results will be discussed in relation to the findings that family and behavioral characteristics predict high school graduation over and above demographics, standardized test scores and grades. Implications of these findings for prevention and early intervention will be discussed.