Session: Predicting Violence Perpetration: Multi Risk and Protective Factor Analyses Using Longitudinal Data from Three Samples (Research that Promotes Sustainability and (re)Builds Strengths (January 15 - 18, 2009))

Interpersonal violence is a major social welfare problem affecting tens of millions every year. As prevention efforts shift from a criminology perspective to embrace developmental analyses of violence etiology, the need for theory-guided longitudinal research on the formative predictors of violence has become starkly evident (CDC, 2006). Although variable clusters associated with violence perpetration have been identified, the distillation of mutable, significant predictors within multi-level frameworks is now critical to informing promising prevention policy and programming. . Key among extant findings has been childhood victimization as antecedent to violence perpetration—fueling a cycle of violence. Yet, studies have rarely examined exposure to more than single violence forms, to victimization contextualized with other concomitant risk and protective factors, or to models that integrate macro and mezzo variables with individual characteristics. Moreover, prior research has been severely weakened by the use of cross-sectional designs that limit testing of prediction to later perpetration or other maladaptation risks. The proposed symposium will examine findings from three prospective longitudinal studies which help address these gaps. Analyses will examine mechanisms that link violence exposure at a young age to later perpetration violence, as well as victimization in adolescence and adulthood.

Papers presented will illustrate methodological approaches well-suited to developmental research as well as innovations in risk and protective factor analysis. Models will seek to advance our understanding of various mechanisms of violence transmission and will include theory-driven tests of cumulative and unique prediction. Findings will inform the development of prevention and intervention programs directed to at-risk youth and families.

Data for the analyses presented are from three well-designed longitudinal studies:

The Reconnecting Youth Research Program study on Adolescent Potential for Suicide is an ongoing longitudinal project targeting individuals (N=848) who, in adolescence, were at risk of suicide and school drop out. Multi-level data spanning individual, familial, school, peer, and work factors posing risk and protective potential for healthy development have been collected beginning in high school and at 4 time points through their transition into young adulthood, with an ethnically diverse, gender-balanced sample.

The Lehigh Longitudinal Study is a prospective study of children and families that began in the mid-1970s to examine the correlates and consequences of child maltreatment. Data from multiple sources were collected at three key developmental points (early childhood, middle childhood, and adolescence). The sample includes 457 children, drawn from child welfare agencies and other community settings in eastern Pennsylvania.

The Seattle Social Developmental Project (SSDP) is a longitudinal panel study of positive and antisocial behaviors begun in 1985 with 808 fifth grade students. Participants were assessed annually to age 16, again at 18, continuing at three-year intervals. The sample (N=808) is gender-balanced and ethnically diverse, with over 52% of the sample from economically disadvantaged families, as evidenced by students' eligibility, in grades 5-7, for the national school lunch/school breakfast program.