Methods: A national sample of youth involved in the child welfare system (N=1179) was used to test the mediating effect of substance use in the maltreatment-delinquency relationship. Data over three time points were derived from personal interviews with young people (ages 11 to 18) and caseworkers who participated in the National Survey on Child and Adolescent Well-being (NSCAW). Measures included youths' self-reported substance use, delinquency, and background variables as well as case workers' ratings of severity of maltreatment risk. Latent growth curve modeling was used to assess the mediating effect of substance use in the relationship between child maltreatment and delinquency.
Results: Youth identified primarily as White (45%), Black (30%), or Hispanic (15%) with 35% receiving public assistance. Case worker assessments determined youth were at no (17%), mild (30%), moderate (29%), or severe (21%) risk of maltreatment and varied significantly in levels of substance use and delinquency. Model fit was adequate (÷2=42.15; p=.06; CFI=.971; RMSEA=.020). Surprisingly, maltreatment risk did not predict delinquency; therefore no mediating relationship was determined between maltreatment and delinquency. However, substance use was a relatively strong predictor of initial delinquency (B=.569, p<.001) and change delinquency (B=-.437, p<.01) regardless of maltreatment risk level. Youth who used more substances reported more serious delinquency at time one and maintained higher rates over the three time points.
Conclusions: For youth involved in the child welfare system, regardless of their level of maltreatment risk, substance use is an important risk factor for predicting initiation of, and change in, delinquent behaviors. These results suggest that, regardless of maltreatment level determined at case investigation, child welfare workers should examine youths' substance use as a predictor of their subsequent involvement in delinquency. Brief screenings for substance use should be administered and tested with child welfare samples, to identify an effective and efficient method for screening, assessment, and referral for treatment. Furthermore, resources should be allocated to implementing substance use prevention protocols within child welfare as such programs may prevent problem behavior likely to result in placement disruptions and reduce child entry into juvenile justice. Researchers and practitioners have long recognized a “pipeline” from the child welfare system to the juvenile justice system; this study's findings suggest interventions to prevent or reduce youths' substance use may be essential to interrupting this pattern.