Determinants of Welfare Leaving: The Significance of Educational Attainment

Background and Purpose

Duration on welfare has been associated with various factors. According to London (1996), mothers with low levels of education who were unmarried, Black, and had more children experienced longer spells on AFDC. Moreover, Taylor, Barusch, and Vogel-Ferguson (2006) found that lack of a high school diploma or GED was associated with longer spells on TANF. However, college attendance has been associated with longer TANF spells (London, 2005). Short-term recipients were more likely to have a high school diploma or GED and to be married (Hetling, Tracy, & Born, 2005; Studts, Stone, & Barber, 2006). These studies provide immense insight regarding the topic of welfare leaving. However, many studies of this topic are old while others sample recipients in only one city or state. Little is known about nationwide welfare recipients coming of age in the post-welfare reform era. Therefore, the purpose of this research study was to examine the determinants of welfare leaving among a young cohort residing across the nation.

Methods

Event history analysis, specifically Cox regression model, was employed to analyze the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to examine the determinants of welfare leaving. NLSY97 provides monthly information about welfare participations and various measures of educational achievement, which enables the authors to identify the effect of educational level on welfare leaving. Cox regression model was useful for this study, because it provides the estimates of the educational achievement on welfare duration after adjustment. Level of education, marital status, race, and number of children were explored among participants who had experienced at least one TANF spell.

Findings

Educational attainment, marital status, and race were associated with welfare leaving. First, recipients with high levels of education exited welfare more quickly than recipients with low levels of education (p<.05). Second, recipients who had ever been married exited welfare more quickly than recipients who had never been married (p<.05). Third, Black recipients exited welfare less quickly than White recipients (p<.05).

Implications

These findings suggest that educational attainment is associated with welfare leaving. Therefore, policy modifications are needed that allow welfare recipients to substitute educational investments for work requirements. Further research is needed that examines the impact of educational attainment on long-term outcomes (e.g., welfare recidivism, income, and employment) among welfare recipients.