Data Driven Child Welfare Workforce Planning in North Carolina

Background and Purpose As part of a comprehensive assessment of North Carolina's child welfare workforce, we analyzed staffing patterns in county departments of social services. North Carolina is a state-supervised, county-administered social services system. We sought to answer the following research questions: (a) Does the system have enough child welfare staff?; (b) are staff members in the “right” places?; (c) does the workforce have the knowledge, skills, and abilities needed to achieve optimal outcomes for children and families?; and (d) does the system have policy and management structures needed to manage the workforce? Method The North Carolina Division of Social Services conducts an annual staffing survey of the state's 100 county departments. The survey data included number of cases, budgeted staff, vacancies, and educational information. We obtained data for 2001 to 2007 and the county response rate was close to 100% each year. The survey data provided information on potential gaps and surpluses in the state's child welfare workforce. We determined gaps and surpluses by comparing the number of budgeted positions reported by counties to the number of workers needed in order to meet state caseload size standards based on the counties' caseload data for each survey year. We analyzed the data across the state and by county size – small (n=51), medium (n=39) and large (n=10). Results From 2001 to 2007, the number of social workers increased from approximately 2300 to 2700 positions or 17% in response to rising caseloads and higher state standards. Across survey years, North Carolina counties on average had a social worker surplus of 0.79 budgeted positions; however, counties had an average gap of -0.32 in supervisor positions. The average county turnover rate was 30% for social workers; 15% for supervisors; and 18% for managers. High turnover negatively impacted social worker staffing levels and resulted in an average gap of -0.74 workers and worsened the supervisor gap to -0.42. There was a considerable increase in social workers with BSW or MSW degrees from 2001 to 2007; primarily due to a two-fold increase in the percentage of social workers with MSWs from 5% to 10%, still a small portion of the total workforce. There were differences by county size: large counties had higher gaps in workers than medium and small counties; on the other hand, large counties had the greatest concentration of MSWs. Conclusions In general, North Carolina counties had enough social worker positions to meet the state standards. High turnover rates negatively impacted social worker staffing by creating an average gap. Thus, recruitment, selection and retention of qualified, committed child welfare workers remained a challenge. Persistent supervisor gaps suggested that it is important to examine the workload and expectations of these crucial staff members. Finally, although looking at the state as a whole was necessary, differences between counties suggested that regional and individual county analysis will prove more fruitful for future research. Towards that end, these data will help build the framework for more sophisticated methods, including caseload projections and spatial analysis.