Predicting Criminal Recidivism during and after Participating in a Mental Health Court

PURPOSE:   This study joined process and outcome evaluation through analyzing the relationship between participants’ characteristics, their program participation, and their criminal reoffending while participating in, and for one year after their discharge from a Mental Health Court program.

METHODS:  Data from 749 participants were collected from the regional court and state department of public safety databases.  The criterion variables for two separate logistic regression (LR) analyses included being formally charged with a criminal offense; (a) While participating in the program, and (b) During the first year following their discharge from the program.  Predictor variables included; (a) Participants’ demographic characteristics, (b) Participants’ length of service and discharge status, and (c) Participants’ major mental illness diagnoses including comorbidity with substance use disorders.  A two stage modeling process using three LR analyses identified predictors from each of the three preceding clusters for inclusion in the final models predicting criminal recidivism during and after program participation, respectively.

RESULTS:  Participants’ had a 41.3% recidivism rate for criminal offenses while they were in the program.  Significant predictors of recidivism while in the program included; (a) The length of program enrollment, which increased the likelihood of recidivism by 3% for every month beyond 30 months that participants were enrolled in the program, and (b) Being a minority group member increased the likelihood of recidivism by 136%.  Being married at the beginning of program enrollment and having a PTSD diagnosis decreased the likelihood of recidivism by 56% and 42%, respectively.  Participants’ had a 21.8% recidivism rate for criminal offenses during the first year following their discharge from the program.  Significant predictors of recidivism during the first year following their discharge from the program included; (a) Participants’ age when they began the program, which significantly decreased the odds of participants reoffending by 6% for each year of age fewer than 36; and (b) Participants’ length of service, with each month in the program greater than 30 decreasing their odds of recidivism by 6%.  This model also identified race as a significant recidivism predictor, with members of minority groups being five times more likely to reoffend than their white counterparts.  Participants’ characteristics will also be reported as univariate descriptors.

IMPLICATIONS:  At the program level it is important and relevant to identify predictors of outcomes which are important to communities, with criminal recidivism being among these.  When considering that minority group membership predicted recidivism while participants were engaged with the program as well as after their discharge, one must understand that the arrests which create a recidivism event occur within the community and are not under the control of the program: Nonetheless these findings underscore the importance of communities engaging in research and problem solving around disproportionate minority arrests.  Participants who reoffend while in the mental health court tend to spend longer times in the program, yet spending a longer time in the program is also a protective factor against recidivism after discharge: Policy makers and program developers should consider this protectiveness when addressing rules around length of participation.