The Prospects of Improving Schedule Predictability in Low-Paid Retail Jobs

BACKGROUND:  At 4.5 million workers, retail sales is the occupation with the highest employment in the US and among the largest proportion of workers earning below self-sufficiency standards (BLS 2012).  This large constituency of low-paid workers faces difficulties of central concern to social work. For example, the timing and number of hours sales associates work often vary from week to week, and with schedules posted only a few days before the workweek, it is difficult for employees to plan and participate in family routines important to child well-being (Henly & Lambert 2014). Currently, the culprit behind these scheduling practices is often assumed to be market forces, specifically, volatile and unpredictable consumer demand. The current study draws on data from a national women’s apparel retail firm to address this assumption and to consider the prospects of providing workers with more stable and predictable work schedules.  It asks:

 How much variation is there in consumer demand, across a year and from week to week? How do store managers perceive variation in demand, and how are their perceptions related to their use of labor flexibility practices, such as posting schedules with limited advance notice?

METHODS: We explore these questions by combining data from 55 stores on: (1) the corporation’s predictions of weekly consumer demand for 2012; (2) payroll records on the total number of staffing hours used each week in each store during 2012; and (3) interviews with the stores’ managers. We compare variations in projected demand and actual staffing hours to empirically assess the stability and predictability of labor requirements.  Managers’ interviews were coded for themes related to their perceptions of variation in demand and the strategies they used to manage it.  

RESULTS: Analyses of actual hours worked in the stores suggest that there is more stability and predictability in labor requirements than commonly assumed. In only 25% of stores did hours vary by more than 30% across the full year (from the peak to the bottom of demand). Week to week variations were minimal, differing on average by only a handful of hours. Moreover, correlations between corporate predictions of demand, and thus predicted labor needs, and actual use of labor were over 0.90. Managers varied, however, in the extent to which they perceived this predictability and stability, which in turn shaped their scheduling practices. For example, managers who viewed labor requirements as largely unpredictable reported waiting to post schedules at the last moment, in case they needed to shave off hours. Others who saw greater predictability would post further in advance, explaining that any adjustments would be minor.

IMPLICATIONS: Finding that there may be more stability and predictability in labor demands in retail than commonly assumed improves the prospects that workers’ hours can be more predictable and stable. The findings are thus important for social workers who seek to improve the quality of low-paid jobs, the policies that govern them, and the economic security of workers and families who would benefit from greater stability and predictability in both hours and earnings.