Impact of Community Violence Among Mexicans after the National “War on Drugs”

Background: As a consequence of the 2006-2012 “War on Drugs”, Mexico experienced increased violence especially noted in the change of the national homicide rate per 100,000 people. Even though researchers have tried to explain the main determinants of violence, few analyses focus on the consequences of crime on the daily lives of lay people. For example, feelings of insecurity are important stressors that have a social contagion effect within the wider community.  The present study examines how living in a context of community violence significantly reduces socialization among friends or family through feelings of insecurity.

Measures: Secondary data from Mexico’s 2012 National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Security was used in a cross-sectional research design. The probabilistic three-staged stratified sample’s unit of analysis was a resident, 18 years or older, of selected houses. The data collection was made through interviews in each house. The sample size is 82,933. The survey is representative at the country and state levels. Participants have a mean age of 42.36 (95% CI 42.24, 42.47); 46% females; 62% work for a pay; 61% urban. Education levels ranged from none (6%) to high school or more (20%).  In 2011, 23% experienced direct victimization of a crime. A 15 item composite measure of Community Violence has a mean of 3.14 and a standard deviation of 2.8 while the 5 item composite measure for Feelings of Insecurity has a mean of 2.8 and a standard deviation of 1.6. 31.5% stopped visiting friends or family in 2011. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship among these and other control variables.  

Results: The overall model has good fit (GOF= .674) and correctly classified 70% of the cases (specificity=86%, sensitivity=36%). In the context of community violence, someone who feels completely safe has a 15-19% probability of reducing socialization due to crime while a person who feels completely unsafe has 50-58% chance. Both types of victimization in urban settings with several local problems were important risk factors and trust in family, friends, neighbors and colleagues were very weak protective factors for socialization.

Implications: The findings suggest that a strategy aiming to alleviate the consequences of crime on social support are likely to have more impact with a focus on reducing risk factors, especially feelings of insecurity, rather than focusing on increasing protective factors like trust. Rhetoric about the reconstruction of the social fabric needs to address ordinary crime in the form of community violence. Victimization reduces socialization but feelings of insecurity have a bigger contagion effect in the population and contribute in a greater degree to isolation. Understanding the social mechanisms behind this process will help improve programs designed to prevent crime and increase long-term quality of life.