Factors Predicting Permanency Outcomes for Children in out-of-Home Care: A Comprehensive Examination of Originally Collected Data Linked to Administrative Records

Background: The timing of permanency outcomes for children placed in out-of-home care is a substantive concern to child welfare scholars and policy makers alike. Extended out-of-home care stays also create a significant cost burden for states – even when compared to the long-term costs of adoption subsidies (Barth, Lee, Wildfire, & Guo, 2006). While previous attempts have sought to examine the timing of the competing permanency options (Akin, 2011; Courtney & Hook, 2012; Courtney & Wong, 1996), the covariates examined in these studies have been limited to those available in administrative data. The current paper makes use of a unique set of originally collected survey data linked to longitudinal court and child welfare administrative data in order to provide deeper insight into child and family-level factors associated with competing permanency options.

Methods: In-person interviews were conducted with a statewide, representative sample of parents. Survey data were linked to child welfare and court administrative data to look at the children’s permanency outcomes from September 24, 2007 to December 31, 2013. The final sample included 651 children nested in 373 households. Permanency outcomes were analyzed by fitting a competing-risk shared gamma “frailty” event history model in which frailty (i.e. propensity to experience permanency) is modeled as being shared within a household. The model was stratified based on the geography of the case.

Results: The majority of children (55%) experienced reunification as a permanency outcome. Adoption was experienced by 28% of our sample followed by 10% who experienced some form of guardianship. The remaining 7% of children in our sample “aged-out” of foster care. The results of our statistical modeling indicate that older children, from families experiencing housing hardship and lower levels of parental education, tend to have lower rates of reunification. Extended placement with relatives appears to increase the rate of reunification. With respect to adoption, our results indicate that older, minority children tend to have lower rates of adoption. Interestingly, parental receptivity to case plans appears to increase the rate of adoptions. Finally, with respect to guardianship, the results of our statistical models indicate a strong and highly significant effect of relative placement with children placed for extended periods of time in relative care experiencing increased rates of guardianship.

Implications: While many studies of child welfare permanency outcomes tend to focus on non-modifiable variables available in administrative date (e.g. race, age, reason for removal, etc.) these factors are of limited utility to policy-makers and practitioners as they cannot be changed to improve permanency outcomes. The model presented here points to several potential strategies (e.g. stable parental housing, support for relative placements, etc.) within the scope of practitioners and policy makers that can potentially be used to improve the timing of permanency outcomes for children placed in out-of-home care. These strategies will be discussed during our presentation as well as possibilities for future research.