Behavioral and Academic Predictors of Grade Retention through Eighth Grade

Background and Purpose: Grade retention is the process whereby students remain at current grade level for an additional school year. In the United States, about 15-20% of students are retained from a grade by the end of high school. Grade retention is more common for males, Blacks, Hispanics, foreign-born students, and children with less-educated parents.  Research has also found students with a history of grade retention to have poorer academic and later employment outcomes than non-retained individuals; however, the broad array of individual characteristics (e.g., math test scores, self-control) associated with grade retention is a significant but understudied topic. This study seeks to describe the variety of early childhood characteristics associated with later grade retention.

Methods: The study uses the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), a nationally representative and longitudinal data including about 21,260 kindergarteners in the 1998-1999 school year, to examine the associations between early childhood characteristics and grade retention. Grade retention was a dichotomous variable constructed based on whether the child was at (=0) or below (=1) grade level in the 2005-2006 school-year. All independent variables were measured in the 1998-1999 school year, including cognitive abilities indicated, by reading and math test scores; social ratings indicated by externalizing and internalizing behaviors; approaches to learning, indicated as the child’s ease in benefitting from the learning environment such as the child’s eagerness to learn and task persistence; children’s receipt of an IEP; and children’s primary language at home. A logit model was applied to predict grade retention from these independent variables, and the analysis was adjusted by the weight variable provided by the ECLS-K.

Results: Academic and behavioral characteristics in kindergarten predict history of grade retention through eighth grade. After controlling for demographic characteristics, results suggest that kindergarten math test scores and child’s approaches to learning significantly predict later grade retention. Particularly, a one-unit change in math test scores reduced the likelihood of grade retention by 12%, while a one-unit change in approaches to learning reduced the likelihood of grade retention by 42%. Interestingly, child’s reading test scores, IEP status, externalizing and internalizing behavior, and residence in a non-English speaking household did not predict grade retention. Demographically, males and children from lower socio-economic status households have a greater likelihood of being retained from a grade. Relative to Whites, Hispanics had a reduced likelihood of being below grade level while odds of grade retention were not significantly different between Whites and African Americans. 

Conclusions and Implications: This study provides evidence that enhancing children’s math abilities and approaches to learning can foster engagement in school activities and protect children from falling below grade level. While developing children’s reading scores in early childhood is beneficial, study findings highlight the significant importance of enhancing learning approaches to further limit children’s history of grade retention.