Methods: Two waves of data were collected from 2,063 students in grades 6-8 from 28 public schools in two rural, economically disadvantaged counties. The sample was racially/ethnically diverse: 33% Native American, 30% White, 27% African American, 10% Hispanic/Latino. Measures included three School Success Profile scales: Academic Relevance, Success Orientation, Engagement. Multiple group structural equation model analysis was conducted in Mplus7 to test a conceptual model that hypothesized mediational relationships moderated by racial/ethnic group membership (i.e., moderated mediation). Overall fit and invariance of the measurement model was established prior to testing the structural model. WLSMV estimation was used because the data are non-normal and ordinal. Clustering of students within schools was modeled. Gender, SES, previous grade retentions, and Wave1 measures of dependent variables were included as controls. Invariance testing followed current recommended procedures (Byrne, 2012; Muthén & Muthén, 1998-2012; Sass, 2011).
Results: Fit indices suggest overall good model fit (CFI=.989; TLI=.990; RMSEA=.018, CI=.015-.020). The model explained 34% of variance in engagement. However, two hypothesized direct paths (Academic Relevance-Engagement; Optimism-Engagement) were not significant. Only one portion of the hypothesized mediational pathway was supported: Academic Relevance significantly and positively predicted Optimism. The more students perceived teachers as using relevance-focused strategies at Wave1, the higher students’ optimism at Wave2. Tests of potential moderation by race/ethnicity indicate the model’s overall explanatory value and the significance and strength of the hypothesized relationships did not differ significantly across groups.
Conclusions/Implications: Although the hypothesized mediational pathway was not supported, findings nonetheless add to our understanding and highlight the need for further investigation. This study suggests the relationship between relevance and engagement may be more nuanced than suggested by previous studies, which may call for refinement in motivation theory. Design, sample, and measurement aspects also will be discussed as important departures from prior studies. Further, this study suggests the universality of the importance of perceiving school as relevant, and that cultivation of this perception may have an important influence on early adolescents’ beliefs about their potential future success. As a potential protective factor, future-oriented optimism is a logical target for school- and community-based prevention and intervention efforts with adolescents. Because optimism may be especially important for youth who encounter structural barriers to academic and future success (e.g., poverty, discrimination), strategies to increase optimism may be especially appropriate for settings serving these populations.