Residential Trajectories and Exposure to Neighborhood Violence during Childhood Among Low-Income Latino and African American Youth

Background and Purpose:

Numerous studies have documented high rates of exposure to neighborhood violence among low-income, minority youth.  However, few studies have attempted to examine the longitudinal residential trajectories of youth across childhood while simultaneously controlling for multiple neighborhood contexts.  Using data from a natural experiment, this study addresses the following questions: (1) To what extent is exposure to neighborhood violence as victims and witnesses conditioned by the neighborhood residential trajectories experienced by Latino and African American youth over the course of their childhood?; (2) What neighborhood residential trajectories make them most dangerous for youth in terms of their chances of becoming victims and the timing of such victimization?

Methods:

Data analyzed come from administrative records and surveys with primary caregivers who participated in the Denver Child Study, a natural experiment that controls for parental geographic selection bias. The Denver Child Studyis a retrospective panel study of youth who resided in randomly assigned public housing units in Denver (DHA) for at least two years during childhood and prior to any exposure to neighborhood violence. This study used sequence analysis with optimal matching to analyze the residential trajectories of youth 18 and older (N=500) to create a series of indicators reflecting longitudinal patterns of childhood exposure to neighborhood conditions such as social vulnerability, social status, nativity composition, social problems, and safety.  Then, normalized Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models with frailties were estimated to predict the timing of first exposure to neighborhood violence during childhood based on variations in these neighborhood residential trajectories.

Results: 

Almost one third (32%) of the youth in the study had witnessed neighborhood violence after moving into DHA; the average age when these youth first witnessed neighborhood violence was 11.9 years. Approximately 13% of the youth had been victimized in their neighborhood; the average age at first victimization was 13.1 years. The strongest predictors of victimization in or early witnessing of neighborhood violence was prolonged residence during childhood in neighborhoods with high property crime rates (b=.653 and b=.634, respectively). Childhood residence in neighborhoods with sustained patterns of low violent crime rates (b=-.443, p < .05) and high to very high fractions of foreign born neighbors (b=-.239, p < .01) were significant protective factors increasing the time to victimization, the latter perhaps underscoring heightened monitoring and supervision by adults in immigrant communities that extend to all children in the neighborhood. 

In terms of practical value, the findings help inform a longstanding debate about the aims and consequences of affordable housing policy for enhancing the life chances of low-income youth through the location of subsidized households in neighborhoods that enhance positive developmental impacts. A greater understanding of the causal mechanisms which lead to exposure to neighborhood violence is important in order to devise appropriate primary and secondary intervention strategies at the neighborhood level.