Predictors of College Entry and Academic Preparedness Among Young People in California Foster Care

Background and Purpose: Research over the past 20 years has shown poor college outcomes for youth in foster care (Gypen et al., 2017). Studies show that foster youth typically attend two-year colleges (Frerer et al., 2013) and enter college academically underprepared for college-level work (California College Pathways, 2015). However, little research has examined factors that influence college enrollment among foster youth, which are important to understand in order to appropriately guide practice and policy. This study examined rates of college entry, academic preparedness among college students, and predictors of college entry for a representative sample of foster youth in California.

Methods: The sample included 711 CalYOUTH participants who consented to administrative data access (98.7% of the baseline sample). College enrollment data were obtained from the National Student Clearinghouse when the average age of participants was 20.2. Logistic regression analyses evaluated a wide range of predictors of college entry including demographic characteristics, measures of academic history and performance, foster care history characteristics, behavioral health problems, participation in extended foster care, and other risk and protective factors. Survey weights were applied to account for the sampling design and non-response. 

Results: In terms of age-normed reading proficiency, most participants fell below the 50^th percentile (47.4% in the bottom quartile and 34.2% in the bottom middle quartile), with just one-in-five youths reading above the 50^th percentile (16.2% in the top middle quartile and 2.2% in the top quartile). More than half of participants had enrolled in college (54.8%), with most college students attending two-year colleges (84.7%). Nearly four-fifths of youths in two-year colleges (78.8%) and more than half of youths in four-year colleges (53.7%) had been reading above age level. Conversely, one-fifth of youth in two-year colleges (21.2%) and less than half of youths in four-year colleges (46.3%) were reading below age level. In the multivariable logistic regression analyses, higher reading scores and educational aspirations predicted increased odds of entering college, whereas repeating a grade, a higher rate of foster care placement changes, and early parenthood decreased the expected odds of enrolling in college (all p<.05). Additionally, each month youth remained in care past age 18 increased the estimated odds of entering college (OR=1.06, p<.001).  

Conclusions: Results from regression analyses suggest being academically behind decreases the expected odds of entering college. Moreover, among youth who entered college, the descriptive findings indicate that nontrivial proportions of youth will likely be academically underprepared for college level work, particularly in two-year colleges. Thus, addressing academic under-preparedness is important both in promoting college entry and college persistence. However, some youth who entered two year colleges may have been able to enter four year colleges (e.g., 25% reading at or above age level) that offer more support and resources to promote college persistence. Removing barriers faced by young parents and decreasing mobility in foster care may also increase college entry. Extended foster care appears to promote college enrollment, but more rigorous research is needed to control for possible selection effects of remaining in care past age 18.