Examining the Connection between Climate Change and Conflict Amongst Middle East and Arab States from 2010-2020

Climate Change and Conflict Amongst Arab and Middle Eastern States:

A systematic review of relationships between political instability, conflict, and climate change from 2010 to 2020

Background:

Climate change and its connection to social unrest and violent conflict is a growing field of academic research, though there exists little such research conducted within social work even though the implications for the vulnerable populations the profession serves are vast. Environmental researchers, national security advisors, and policy think tanks have long warned of the sociopolitical consequences of climate change, yet little has been accomplished to develop sound public policy and social interventions to mediate the risks.

The Arab Spring revolutions that began in 2010 and spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) have been framed as purely political movements. Yet, before large scale pro-democracy demonstrations, localized protests erupted in the region in response to the rising cost of wheat, increased food shortages, and decline in agriculture. Moreover, the historic drought which devastated this region years preceding these protests is hypothesized to have been an indirect, yet significant, influence on the timing and intensity of this political movement.

Increasingly, social work practitioners and researchers are concerned about climate change, violence and conflict, and humanitarian disasters. Yet, the connections between these areas are not well-detailed or well-researched. This paper lays a foundation for these relationships in social work using a systematic review methodology to assess the connection between climate change factors and the incidence of political instability and/or conflict within MENA countries in the past decade, to ascertain the quality of that research, and to make recommendations for future research in this area.

Methods:

This systematic review was conducted in congruence with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) framework. A formal protocol for this review was submitted to PROSPERO. Data was synthesized utilizing a narrative thematic analysis that is most appropriate considering the varied study designs and interdisciplinary subject matter included in this review. Fourteen studies met the review criteria.

Results:

Results largely support climate change indirectly, but significantly, influenced the timing and intensity of political unrest and conflicts throughout the Middle East and Arab nation-states during the Arab Spring era (2010-2020). Specifically, human induced climate change caused an unprecedented drought in the early 2000’s that eroded agricultural sectors, caused mass internal displacement to urban centers, and eventual social unrest when governments failed to respond.

Most of the reviewed studies used a mixed methods approach of secondary data analysis and quantitative measures, using countries and regions as the units of analysis. In order to strengthen research in this area, qualitative data collection on lived experiences, focused subnational level environmental data, and systematic policy analysis are needed. The results from this review have implications that far exceed the MENA region. This work necessitates continued interdisciplinary collaboration. Social workers working in regions predicted to be on the forefront on climate change are in key roles to create and test multi-level interventions to prevent and mitigate the impacts of a changing climate.