(WITHDRAWN) A Latent Transition Analysis of Female Childhood Maltreatment and Adolescent Outcomes

Background/Purpose: Childhood maltreatment experiences involve dynamic relationships between inputs and sources. The constellation of experiences may change or shift as a child moves through childhood and these differences in experiences differentially correlate with distal outcomes. Within female populations, we examine how juvenile justice involvement and early motherhood pose ongoing difficulties for an at-risk population. Latent Transition Analysis identifies latent classes and the transition of children between these classes as their alleged maltreatment indicators change with time. This methodology classifies different alleged maltreatment profiles and compares likelihood of linked outcomes. We identify how risk for teenage motherhood and adolescent arrest are related to different classifications of maltreatment, identifying transitions which are more likely to both be either riskier or protective. This study leverages linkage of administrative data from birth, child protection, and arrest records to assess risk for future cross system outcomes. We provide an analysis based on a full birth cohort of females born in California experiencing maltreatment at some point during childhood. These results identify which maltreatment patterns are correlated with higher risk for early motherhood and juvenile justice involvement and require more research to address potential interventions to reduce risk.

Methods: We obtained administrative birth records and child protective service (CPS) records for females born in 1999 (N=76,211). Records were probabilistically linked for these sources, where child information from the girls’ birth record was used to identify these same individuals as mothers for births 2012 through 2017. Indicators of alleged maltreatment were identified from CPS records: neglect, emotional abuse, physical abuse, sexual abuse, multiple perpetrators and nonparent perpetrators. These indicators were identified through the course of childhood to model transitions through latent classifications. Classifications were then used to predict distal outcomes, including the likelihood of having a child as a teenager and experiencing an arrest during teenage years.

Results: In California, 30.0% of female children were probabilistically linked to a CPS referral, where 2.0% of these children were linked to an arrest record and 4.5% were linked to a birth as a mother. We were able to identify five different classifications of maltreatment through childhood; which children transition in to and out of through different age periods. Females with the classification of experiencing multiple types of alleged maltreatment had the highest levels of teen motherhood (10.8%) and arrests (6.7%), followed by the sexual abuse classification (6.4% mothers; 2.6% arrests) and the neglect classification (7.0% mothers; 2.5% arrests). Females with no maltreatment during adolescence had the lowest probabilities of motherhood (2.1%) and arrest (0.6%).

Conclusions and Implications: Childhood maltreatment affects a large subset of the population of female children represented in California administrative data. Children with sexual abuse allegations or experience numerous allegations for different maltreatment types were shown to be at higher risk for teen motherhood and arrest, while the absence of later maltreatment had decreased risk. This highlights the need for earlier intervention in order to effectively lower the probability of motherhood and arrest towards the end of childhood.