Examining the Roles of Latinx Ethnic Density and Rurality on Maltreatment Referral and Substantiation Rates Among Latinx Children and Youth: A County-Level Analysis

Background: Recent research has found evidence of locality-based disproportionality among Latinx youth involved in the US child welfare system, suggesting that further investigation of the association between geographic location and maltreatment reports is needed. In Latinx communities, high levels of ethnic density have been shown to be protective against, as well as insufficient for, mitigating maltreatment risk. Such mixed outcomes may be partially attributable to the incredible diversity of the Latinx community as language, immigration status, national origin, etc. are a few of the factors that may contribute to differential experiences. This study investigates how population density (rurality) and Latinx ethnic density (proportion of residents who identify as Latinx) affect maltreatment referral and substantiation rates among Latinx youth involved in child welfare while controlling for intra-community factors related to language and nationality.

Methods: Using 2010-2019 data from across the US, we linked the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) with the American Community Survey (Census Bureau). The NCANDS is an administrative dataset of all child maltreatment investigations per state child protective service agencies. County-level Latinx child maltreatment referral/substantiation rates were calculated by dividing the count of referred/substantiated Latinx victims by Latinx child population. Population density was measured continuously, using Rural-Urban Continuum Codes that distinguish counties by degrees of urbanization (higher values denote increasing rurality). We operationalized county-level Latinx density using the percentage of Hispanics or Latinos out of the total population. Community characteristics describing county-level attributes relevant to Latinx communities (i.e., foreign-born, Spanish-speaking, & place of origin) were included. Additional community characteristics (i.e., poverty rate, percentage male, households using public assistance, and adults with 4-year college or above) were used as controls. Ordinary Least Squares regression models examined the relationship between rurality and child maltreatment referral and substantiation, using Latinx density as a moderator.

Results: Latinx child maltreatment referral (b = 0.80, p < .001) and substantiation rates (b = 0.26, p < .001) were significantly higher in rural than urban areas after controlling for county-level characteristics. Significant interaction effects between Latinx density and rurality in the associations with referral (b = -0.02, p < .001) and substantiation rates (b = -0.01, p < .001) suggest that the relationship between rurality and referral and substantiation rates was weaker in Latinx dense versus sparse areas. Higher percentages of Spanish-speaking residents associated with lower substantiation rates (b=-.04, p<.01) while higher percentages of Cuban residents associated with increased referral (b=.37, p<.001) and substantiation (b=.14, p<.01) rates.

Implications: Maltreatment referral and substantiation rates are slightly lower within more sparsely populated counties where more Latinx residents live, implying that Latinx density may be protective in rural areas. We also find that Latinx community characteristics may affect rates distinctly as language and place of origin yielded contradictory results. In alignment with the literature, this underscores that the interplay between maltreatment and geography for this diverse community is incredibly complex. Future research should continue to parse out the effects of ethnic density and rurality by considering child-level factors and maltreatment type.