When "Shelter-in-Place" Isn't Shelter That's Safe: A Rapid Analysis of Domestic Violence Case Differences during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Stay-at-Home Orders

Background and Purpose: Between social distancing and stay-at-home orders, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in abrupt changes to the ways people interact. This study explored the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on domestic violence (DV) with the following research questions: 1) Did DV occurring during the pandemic differ on certain variables from cases occurring on a typical day the previous year? 2) Did DV occurring after the implementation of shelter-in-place orders differ (on these same variables) from cases occurring prior to shelter-in-place orders?

Methods: Two logistic regression models were developed to predict DV case differences before and during the pandemic. DV reports were collected from the Chicago Police Department. Cases from March 2019 and March 2020 were analyzed based on multiple variables. One model was set to predict case differences since the pandemic began, and another model was set to predict case differences during the shelter-in-place period later that month. Covariates in the two models included dummy coded measures on presence of sex offense, weapon use, arrests made, presence of child victim, and whether the incident occurred in a residential location.

Results: A total of 4,618 DV cases from March 2019 and March 2020 were analyzed. Chi-square analyses revealed strong associations between presence of sex crime and presence of child victim as well as between weapon use and arrest made. Logistic regression analyses revealed statistically significant findings on both overall models, as well as multiplepredictors per model. During the pandemic period, cases with arrests were 20% less likely to have occurred, and cases at residential locations were 22% more likely to have occurred. During the shelter-in-place period, cases at residential locations were 64% more likely to have occurred, and cases with child victims were 67% less likely to have occurred.

Conclusions and Implications: This study offers a rapid analysis of DV case differences since the pandemic and shelter-in-place began. Location and presence of child victim(s) were identified as important predictors of how DV may differ during the pandemic and under shelter-in-place orders. The study was strengthened by a large sample, but additional variables and data sources could improve model explanatory power. Research, policy, and practice in this area must pivot to focus on protecting children whose access to mandated reporters has decreased and moving victims out of dangerous living situations into safe spaces.