The Moderating Effect of Residential Area on the Association between Race and Recidivism Among Juvenile Justice-Involved Youth

Background and Significance: Although the relationship between race and recidivism among youth has been investigated, there is no empirical consensus on whether race could be a factor in juvenile recidivism. Additionally, previous studies reported stable differences in recidivism between geographic areas, based on population density. The urban areas with the highest rate of recidivism and rural areas with intermediate or low levels imply that the strength of the association between race and recidivism could vary depending on the residential area. However, there are few of these studies examining the differences in youth recidivism between rural and urban regions. Moreover, those studies have not explored these factors in the southeastern U.S., largely ignoring rural areas. Using administrative data, we investigated the moderating effect of residential area on the association between race and recidivism among Alabama youth.

Methods: Obtained from the AL Department of Youth Services (DYS) and Administrative Office of Courts, we used de-identified Student Information Management System data, a repository of information on youth who were committed to DYS custody, which allowed us to analyze the 2014 cohort (N = 1,040) who were between the ages of 10 and 20 and came from 63 out of the state’s 67 counties. Binary recidivism outcome (no/yes) measured as the adjudication for a new criminal offense was collected two years after discharge. The main IV was binary racial groups (Whites/youth of color); a moderator was the types of residential area (urban/rural) defined by a classification method from the Office of Management and Budget. Criminogenic/demographic factors were included as covariates. Data were analyzed using the SPSS and PROCESS macro.

Results: Within two years of their release, 50% of youth recidivated. The majority were youth of color (60.4%) and came from urban areas (67.6%). In the PROCESS macro, our model revealed that race and residential area interacted with one another to affect the likelihood of recidivism among youth (p < .01). For the simple effect of race (OR= .66, 95% CI= .46-.93), among youth from urban areas, White youth were more likely to recidivate than youth of color, while among youth from rural areas, youth of color were more likely than White youth to recidivate. For the simple effect of residential area (OR= .46, 95% CI= .31-.70), among White youth, those who were from urban areas were more likely than the same-race peer group from rural areas to recidivate. Among youth of color, those who were from urban areas were also more likely to recidivate than the same-race peer group from rural areas; however, this was significant only among White youth. Additionally, other factors, including age, violent crimes, and types of placements, were significantly associated with youth recidivism.

Conclusion and Implications: Our findings highlight that the race effect on recidivism needs to be understood by reflecting where juveniles come from. Residential area effect on recidivism has implications for both policy and macro-level social work practice. More geographically tailored intervention and strategic distribution of resources for aftercare or re-entry/transition are needed to effectively prevent youth recidivism.