Methods: This study used ten years of data from the Children’s Bureau Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) for foster youth, 2010-2019. These data were combined with state-level policy and demographic characteristics drawn from a variety of state policy data sources. Using the AFCARS, the total number of children whose manner of removal was “voluntary” was counted for each state for each year, and both accumulated and new entry rates were calculated and merged with state-level control variables. Multilevel, fixed-effects linear regression models assessed the relationship between states’ use of a 1915(c) waiver and their total accumulated and new entry voluntary foster care placement rates. Regression models adjusted for state mental health system and demographic variables. Models grouped observations by state, included a time variable to control for natural changes in child welfare and behavioral health systems over time, and used robust standards errors to manage outcome variable heteroskedasticity.
Results: Total state voluntary foster care placements varied widely (SD=640.66), with an average of 393.5 accumulated and 162.7 new entries voluntary placements per year. Non-waiver states averaged 420.1 accumulated and 181.0 new entry voluntary placements per year, compared to 313.4 accumulated and 107.5 new entry voluntary placements per year in non-waiver states. Rates of new entry voluntary placements declined significantly throughout the 10 years of the study (β= -.040; -0.75, -0.11). Controlling for state variation in demographics and public funding for children, states’ use of a 1915(c) waiver was associated with reductions in total accumulated (β= -1.35; -2.18, -0.52) and total new entry (β= -1.22; -2.29, -0.15) voluntary placement rates.
Conclusion: HCBS Medicaid waivers targeting children with mental health needs may effectively reduce state rates of voluntary foster care placements. Additional research is needed to understand the functional or clinical gains realized by children with complex mental health needs who are served under HCBS waiver programs.