Methods: This study included 616 CalYOUTH participants who were interviewed at age 17 (Wave 1) and age 21 (Wave 3). Predictors were measured at Wave 1 (age 17), and the outcome was measured at Wave 3 (age 21). The outcome variable is a binary self-report measure of incarceration since last interview between ages 19 and 21. The predictors are several SSN measures capturing two key dimensions of SSN: (1) adequacy of three support types and (2) network size of three support sources. Using the SSN Questionnaire, CalYOUTH asked respondents to: (1) rate their perceived adequacy (enough vs. not enough) for three support types (emotional, tangible, informational support); and (2) nominate the total number of people they could turn to for support from various sources (e.g., family/relatives, peers, professionals). Control variables include youths’ demographic characteristics, behavioral health diagnoses, characteristics of foster care placements, and a history of juvenile justice involvement. Binary logistic regression examined associations between SSNs and incarceration, controlling for covariates. Analyses used survey weights to adjust the survey design.
Results: About 13% of respondents reported experiencing incarceration since last interview between ages 19 and 21. At age 17, youth reported “informational support” was the most common support type they perceived as adequate (72%), while “families/relatives” were the most common support source (1.48 individuals on average). Regarding support adequacy, the estimated odds of incarceration were significantly lower for youths who perceived having (1) enough “emotional support” (OR=0.30) and (2) enough “all types of emotional, tangible, and informational support” (OR=0.44) (all p<.05). We found no significant relationship between the size of SSNs at age 17 and later incarceration.
Conclusions: Consistent with social bonds theory, we find that having adequate emotional support in late adolescence is associated with reduced incarceration for young people transitioning to adulthood from foster care. Our analyses of characteristics of SSNs provide nuanced insights suggesting there may be optimal types of support that help to mitigate risks of incarceration. These findings call for child welfare professionals’ outreach and active engagement with youth to strengthen supportive relationships that can provide comfort, reassurance, and encouragement to youth experiencing emotional distress or difficult feelings during this critical transition period.