The Exacerbating Influence of COVID-19 on Turnover in Public Child Welfare

Background/Purpose: The public child welfare system has been attempting to overcome high levels of caseworker turnover for decades. Research has identified various individual, supervisory, and organizational characteristics that are important to consider when attempting to intervene. However, much of this work was completed and published prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic was an experience of collective trauma and led to increased stress for child welfare staff, both at home and at work. To understand the importance of COVID-19 related stress, this study considers the ongoing changes in the child welfare workforce before and after the COVID-19 pandemic to describe the veracity and influence of pandemic-related stress on incidence of turnover in public child welfare organizations.

Methods: This study uses caseworker data from the Wisconsin Administrative Data Core (WADC) to identify start date, end date, primary role, and employing entity for all public child welfare professionals employed in one state between January 2006 and June 2022. In addition, demographic information from the state training management system is included to highlight the influence of personal characteristics on turnover. In total, the sample includes all public child welfare professionals in the state (n=7,296) employed at any period during that time.

Caseworker employment data were analyzed to determine the general, ongoing churn in caseworker turnover experienced by agencies in the state and to highlight changes in turnover associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, an Accelerated Failure Time Model is used to determine the odds of turnover given the caseworker’s primary job role, education, race/ethnicity, agency region, and agency urbanicity.

Results: Between 2006-2019, annual turnover in the state continued at between 10-15% each year, however, began to slowly rise following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Turnover peaked at an annual rate of 25% in 2021, but is on a steady increase, already reaching a rate of 20% turnover by June 2022. Almost 50% of caseworkers who began their employment in public child welfare in this state in 2021 (n=221, 48.89%) left their job by June 2022, and stayed an average of only 4.78 months in the role before departing.

Additionally, the Accelerated Failure Time Model indicates that caseworkers with Initial Assessment/Investigative roles and those with Ongoing Case Management positions were more likely to leave, while those in Supervisory positions were significantly less likely to leave. White caseworkers, those with Masters degrees or higher, and those in urban-based agencies were more likely to remain in their position.

Conclusions and Implications: While public child welfare has consistently struggled with turnover, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the ongoing trend. Leaders in child welfare must consider the influence of program and policy changes made during the pandemic to understand the root causes of child welfare professional departure. Intentional change is required to end the turnover crisis and reduce the overall vacancy rates in child welfare organizations to ensure they can meet the ongoing needs of their community.