Public Attitudes Toward Welfare State in the U.S., Germany, and Sweden: A Longitudinal Comparative Study

Background and Purpose: The United States has been considered a ‘reluctant welfare state’ as its welfare policies are less comprehensive than those of other developed countries. Literature argued that the U.S. has a unique socio-political culture that highly emphasizes self-reliance, and this individualism has hindered the development of the U.S. welfare state. Since the 2008 Economic Crisis, however, there has been a growing skepticism of individualism in the U.S. The significant shift in Americans’ consensus from absolute trust in individualism to an increased concern for the role of government was one of the key factors that enabled the Biden administration to implement large package bills of progressive welfare programs. In this sense, the U.S. welfare state is in the midst of a transition.

Against this backdrop, this study empirically examined how public’s attitudes toward welfare state have changed in the U.S. over the past decade. To capture the unique dynamics of changes in Americans' welfare attitudes, this study conducted a longitudinal comparison of the U.S., Germany, and Sweden, each representing three different welfare regimes (liberal, conservative, and social democratic) in Esping-Andersen's typology of welfare states.

Methods: This study used data from the World Values Survey (WVS), a global longitudinal research project that investigates people's values and beliefs. We compared 2006 cohort (pre Economic Crisis) to 2017 cohort (post Economic Crisis) in three countries, using hierarchical mixed-effect modeling. The total sample size was 11,092 and the unit of analysis was individual. Following Jacobsen's approach, we developed a generalized welfare attitudes index, a dependent variable, that measures respondents' attitudes toward (1) income equality, (2) government responsibility, and (3) redistribution through taxes. Based on the theory of ‘conditional self-interest’, which suggests that the effect of self-interest on welfare attitudes may be moderated by social context, we used demographic attributes, social class, political affiliation, and religiosity as predictor variables.

Results: The findings show that the U.S. has seen a significant increase in welfare attitudes since the Economic Crisis, while Germany has seen no change in welfare attitudes and Sweden has seen a slight decline. These results indicate that the impact of the Economic Crisis on welfare attitudes varies across countries. Research also shows that before the crisis, education level, social class, and employment status were important determinants of welfare attitudes, but after the crisis, political affiliation and religiosity became significant factors. The findings suggest that in the U.S., the determinants of welfare attitudes have shifted from economic and social factors to values since the Economic Crisis. However, in Germany and Sweden, age and gender were significant predictors.

Conclusions and Implications: Public support for the welfare state is crucial for its development and sustainability, as positive welfare attitudes among citizens can encourage policymakers to allocate more social resources to welfare programs. This study suggest the Economic Crisis has led to a more positive attitude toward welfare state among the entire U.S. population, regardless of socioeconomic groups. This implies the U.S. welfare state is likely to expand. We also discussed the polarizing trend in welfare attitudes.