[WITHDRAWN] State Policy Contexts and Material Hardships Among Low-Income Families in the Aftermath of COVID-19

Background and Purpose: Questions abound about how low-income families fared in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that the federal-level pandemic buffered many low-income families against material hardships. Yet, much of this burgeoning literature has taken a national-level view despite the devolution of authority to states’ following the welfare reforms of the 1990s to determine eligibility and participation criteria in many U.S. safety net programs. Therefore, it follows that low-income families in states with generous state-level safety net provisions may have had a comparatively lower likelihood of experiencing material and food hardships (e.g., paying for essential expenses, mortgage/rent, food insecurity) in the aftermath of COVID-19. The present study seeks to understand the relationship between state-level safety net generosity and low-income families with children reports of material and food hardship in the aftermath of COVID-19.

Methods: Using data from the Census Bureau’s ongoing Household Pulse Survey, multiple logistic regression models are used to assess the relationship between states’ safety net generosity (TANF, paid family and sick leave, SNAP, state EITC availability, minimum wage mandates, Medicaid expansion) and the likelihood of experiencing material hardships (food and housing insecurity, essential expenses, and the overall number of reported material hardships) controlling for individual level (age, race, gender, education, household structure, marital status, children, income level, work status, and SNAP, unemployment and SSI receipt in the household) and state-level characteristics (poverty rates, unemployment, and low-income uninsured children), following COVID-19. The sample (N=67,476) includes households with children at or below 300% of the federal poverty line who completed the Household Pulse Survey between 8/19/2020 and 7/5/2021 (phases 2, 3, and 3.1 of the survey).

Results: Preliminary results are mixed but suggest that in some instances state-level safety net provisions were related to increased reports of material hardships while in other instances dampened reported rates of material and food hardships. Preliminary results also suggest that poverty rates and rates of uninsured low-income children in a state significantly increased the likelihood of reporting material and food hardships and higher rates of COVID-19 in a state in the weeks preceding the survey also significantly increased the likelihood of reports of material and food hardships among low-income households with children. Ongoing analysis will consider multicollinearity between state-level safety provisions and subgroup analyses.

Conclusion: The present study demonstrates the need for comprehensive safety net supports to reduce the prevalence and impact of poverty on children and families. Additionally, targeted safety net policies that support those families most at risk of experiencing material hardship are needed.