Abstract: Predicting the Long-Term Course of Drinking Among Military Veterans: A Data-Driven Approach (Society for Social Work and Research 28th Annual Conference - Recentering & Democratizing Knowledge: The Next 30 Years of Social Work Science)
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263P Predicting the Long-Term Course of Drinking Among Military Veterans: A Data-Driven Approach

Schedule:
Friday, January 12, 2024
Marquis BR Salon 6, ML 2 (Marriott Marquis Washington DC)
* noted as presenting author
Shaddy Saba, MA, PhD student, University of Southern California, CA
Jordan Davis, PhD, Assistant Professor, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
John Prindle, PhD, Research Faculty, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
John Bunyi, Phd student, University of Southern California, CA
Carl Castro, PhD, Professor, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Eric Pedersen, PhD, Associate Professor, University of Southern California, CA
Background and Purpose: Military veterans experience high rates of hazardous drinking. Biopsychosocial models of hazardous drinking suggest many factors (i.e., psychological, socio-demographic, military-specific, and area-level factors) might interact to influence drinking over time. It remains unknown which factors are most consequential in determining the course of drinking among veteran hazardous drinkers, and this may limit the effectiveness of intervention and prevention efforts.

Methods: The present study involves a sample of veterans who met criteria for hazardous drinking (n = 1036) and were surveyed six times over two years about their drinking, as well as their socio-demographic characteristics, psychological functioning, and military experiences. Participants’ zip codes were used to link area-level data from multiple sources. Structural equation modeling (SEM) forest, a machine learning approach used to predict differences in SEM parameters, was employed to elucidate the most important predictors of hazardous drinking trajectories.

Results: Moral injury event exposure and well as PTSD and anxiety symptomology emerged as top predictors. Prototypical growth curve models of hazardous drinking over the study period were used to visually depict interactions among the most important predictors.

Conclusions and Implications: Combat experiences in combination with psychological symptomology may be particularly consequential in determining the course of hazardous drinking among veterans. Results can lend clarity on risk and protective factors to programs and policies targeting hazardous drinking among veterans, and can inform future, hypothesis-driven research.

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