Surviving High School Transfers: A Multilevel Study of Student and School Characteristics Related to School Transfer, Graduation, and College Entry

Background and Purpose: Transferring schools happens regularly across the United States from kindergarten to college. While student mobility studies have focused more on elementary and middle school grades, research at the high school level is limited. Studies on transfer during high school related to postsecondary education are even more scarce.

This study investigates transfer risk associated with student and school characteristics and its association with high school graduation and college enrollment, with the following research questions: 1) Which student and school characteristics are associated with school transfer risk after entering the 9th grade? 2) To what extent are school transfer and other factors associated with graduation? Does the magnitude of the effect of changing schools related to graduation vary across schools? 3) To what extent are school transfer and other factors associated with college entry? Does the magnitude of the effect of school transfer on college entry vary across schools?

Method: In collaboration with the Maryland Longitudinal Data Systems Center, the research used analytic samples from a cohort of 6,810 first-time ninth graders enrolled in Baltimore City Public Schools from 2012-2013 to 2017-2018. To examine the factors related to college entry, a second analytic sample included only students who obtained a high school diploma, a certificate of completion, or a GED (N = 4,297).

The study employed mixed-effects parametric proportional hazards modeling to investigate student- and school-level characteristics associated with time to the transfer event and multilevel binary logistic regressions to analyze student and school factors related to odds of high school graduation and college enrollment.

Results: Thirty-four percent of students transferred schools during the study period. Compared to Black students, Whites (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.81; p<.001) were at a reduced transfer risk, controlling for student- and school-level factors. In addition, chronic absentees (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.51 to 1.86; p<.001) had increased transfer risk compared to those not absent 20 or more days a school year.

At the student level, transferring schools was associated with lower odds of graduation (OR = 0.41, 95% CI [0.31,0.54], p<.001) and college entry (OR = 0.60, 95% CI [0.47,0.76], p<.001), adjusting for student- and school-level variables. At the school level, the percentage of school transfer (OR = 0.20, 95% CI [0.04,0.89], p<.05) was associated with lower odds of college enrollment. Transfer, related to graduation and college entry, varied across schools.

Conclusion: Transferring schools is a multidimensional event associated with lower graduation and college enrollment odds for many study cohort students. As an instantaneous event, a transfer lends itself naturally to measuring hazard rates. Identifying student and school characteristics associated with time-to-transfer risk provide critical information to social work practitioners in high school settings. However, school transfers will continue to be associated with adverse educational outcomes if left undisturbed. Therefore, assessing district priorities and budgetary constraints that influence current policies governing school transfers is essential. Finally, further research examining the link between transfer and transformational resistance shows excellent promise in changing the odds for youth in local and state educational systems.