Exploring Factors Associated with Girls' Recidivism in Alabama: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

Background and Significance: Recidivism among girls is a concerning issue that requires attention. National data indicate girls continue to be more likely to be committed to technical violations than males and are more likely to have status offenses. Additionally, girls are more likely to be victims of abuse, particularly sexual abuse and sex trafficking. Girls’ trauma responses are more likely to be criminalized, essentially creating a trauma-to-prison pipeline for girls. Despite its significance, research on girls’ recidivism has been lacking compared to that of boys. To address this gap, the present study aims to examine the factors linked to recidivism among girls who have interacted with the juvenile legal system in Alabama and placed in the custody of the Alabama Department of Youth Services (DYS), the State agency for juvenile corrections.

Methods: De-identified youth data was obtained from DYS and the Administrative Office of Courts (AOC). DYS maintains a database, the Student Information Management System (SIMS), a repository of information on youth who were committed to DYS custody. For this study, we used data for girls who were released from DYS custody in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. Our aggregated sample included 750 girls who were between the ages of 13 and 21 at the time of release from the facilities and came from 60 out of the state’s 67 counties. Binary recidivism outcome (no/yes) measured as the adjudication for a new criminal offense was collected at six months, first, second, and third years after discharge. Predictors included criminogenic/demographic factors. For analyses, discrete-time survival analysis models, including the discrete-time logistic model and complementary log-log model, were estimated using Stata version 15.1.

Results: Overall, total recidivism rates across the cohorts were 38% at the three-year mark. About 22% of recidivism occurred within the first 6 months after release. In the regression, our model revealed that older girls (OR= .79, 95% CI= .70, .88), those who were from rural areas (OR= .73, 95% CI= .54, .98), and were placed in short-term programs were significantly less likely to recidivate than their counterparts. Lastly, girls belonging to the 2016 cohort (OR= .66, 95% CI= .45, .97) showed a significant decrease in the likelihood of recidivism compared to their counterparts from the 2014 cohort. The recidivism rates experienced a significant decline over time. The outcomes of the complementary log-log model were in line with those of the binary logit model, which provided a higher degree of certainty about our findings.

Conclusion and Implications: Three factors, including age, geographical areas, and program types were identified as significant factors associated with girls’ recidivism. Since girls account for only a small percentage of the total population committed to DYS, program options are limited, indicating the need for programs carefully designed with the flexibility to meet the individualized needs of female youth in Alabama with a focus on community-based resources specifically designed to reduce their recidivism.