Child Mental Health Predictors Among Camp Tamil Refugees: Utilizing Linear and Xgboost Models

Background & Purpose: While the association between migration and deteriorated refugee mental health is well-documented, existing research overwhelmingly centers on adult populations, leaving a discernible gap in our understanding of the factors influencing mental health for forcibly displaced children. This focus is particularly noteworthy considering the estimated 43.3 million children who are forcibly displaced globally. Little is known regarding the association between family processes, parental and child wellbeing for this population. This study addresses these gaps by examining the relationship between parental mental health and child mental health among refugees experiencing transmigration.

Methods: The present study was conducted in partnership with the Organization for Eelam Refugee Rehabilitation, a non-profit group founded in 1984. We conducted in-person structured survey interviews with 120 parent-adolescent dyads living in the Trichy refugee camp in Tamil Nadu, India. Stratified purposive sampling techniques were used to select participants in the study. Child measures collected included depressive symptoms, daily stressors, child report of family functioning, strengths and difficulties, and sleep quality. Parental measures included mental health, sleep quality, and parent report of family functioning. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate analysis were conducted to characterize the data. To test the associations and predict the variables contributing to child depressive symptoms, we use both linear and nonlinear methods, namely, hierarchical regression and XGBOOST. Linear models were used to test model significance, Mean Square Errors, adjusted R², and change in R² (R²Δ). We adopted a supplemental method with the ability to explain variable importance of the predictors and perform concurrent cross validation. Specifically, we utilized XGBoost to identify the most important variables in predicting child depressive symptoms, and to examine the dependency of each predictor.

Results: The results confirm parental mental health and child behavioral and emotional factors are significant predictors of child depressive symptoms. While our linear model did not reveal a statistically significant association between child mental health and family functioning, results from XGBOOST highlight the substantial importance of family functioning in contributing to child depressive symptoms.

Conclusion: this study begins to theorize the relationships among parental mental health, family functioning and child depressive symptoms in the context of forced displacement. Findings offer evidence that within the context of transmigration, there is a notable deterioration in family functioning, leading to declines in both parental and child mental health outcomes. . Findings underscore the need to develop and implement resources that build upon parenting capacities and that improve parental efficacy. Other key implications include the urgency to provide mental health interventions for both parents and their children in camp settings, and to immediately address adverse transmigration stressors. .