Sociodemographic Predictors of School and/or Work Status Among U.S. Young Adults Experiencing Low-Incomes

Background and Purpose: In the U.S., nearly 12.6% of young people ages 16 to 24 are neither enrolled in school nor working. Estimates indicate that these youth, often called disconnected youth, are about two times more likely to be living in poverty, be uninsured or receiving Medicaid, and over 10 times more likely to not have completed high school than their connected counterparts. The societal and individual impacts of chronic disconnection from school and work are substantial. Interventions are needed to establish a life course trajectory that leads to economic stability. Some research indicates that young adults have varied connections to school and/or work during the transition into adulthood; however, no studies have focused on young adults experiencing low-incomes accessing workforce development programs. We answer the research question: What are sociodemographic predictors of work and school status at three-year follow-up among young adults experiencing low-income?

Methods: The study utilized longitudinal data from the Pathways for Advancing Careers and Education (PACE) evaluation to understand characteristics related to school and/or work status at the three-year follow-up among young adults with low-incomes who are eligible for career pathways programs. Our sample included 4,973 young adults assigned to 9 PACE sites. We used multivariable multinomial logistic regression to examine relationships between treatment group status, assigned sex, baseline family income, baseline use of public assistance programs, number of life challenges, number of children, and parent educational attainment, all measured at baseline, and joint work and school status - which was measured the 12^th quarter after random assignment and had four categories each quarter: (1) not enrolled, not employed; (2) employed, not enrolled; (3) enrolled, not employed; (4) enrolled, employed.

Results: Three years after random assignment, 58.5% of participants were employed only, 16.4% were working and in school, and 17.0% were attached to neither. When controlling for treatment group status, several demographic factors measured at baseline were related to school and work status in the 12^th quarter. Having income between $0 and $15,000, experiencing more life challenges, receiving SNAP or WIC in the past month and having more children was related to a lower relative risk of working only and/or working and school compared to doing neither. Being female and being aged 18 to 20 or 21 to 24 compared to 25 to 34 were associated with higher relative risk of working only or doing both rather than doing neither.

Conclusions and Implications: Being offered the opportunity to participate in workforce development programs that provided additional supports was not significantly related to school and work status three years later when controlling for sociodemographic factors. Instead, we see how life challenges, like lacking access to childcare or transportation or experiencing domestic violence, parenting responsibilities, and experiencing low incomes may continue to play a role in one’s ability to be connected to the workforce, despite the goals of programs to put people on career paths. Future research should consider how local economic contexts and state-level policies might influence connection to school and work for these young adults.