Understanding Protective Factors Against Incarceration for Dual-Systems Youth: Insights from Social Control Theory

Background and Purpose: The transition to adulthood presents unique challenges for adolescents, particularly for those involved in both child welfare and juvenile justice systems—referred to as dual-systems youth. Research shows that these individuals often face worse outcomes, such as a higher risk of incarceration, compared to those involved in only one system. However, there has been limited exploration of the ongoing challenges they encounter during this transition, with existing literature primarily focusing on their experiences before and during their involvement with these systems. Social control theory suggests that adolescent criminal behavior stems from a lack of social bonds, including attachment to significant figures, and involvement in education and work. Grounded in this theory, the current study investigates the relationship between various social bonds and early adulthood incarceration among dual-systems youth using longitudinal data.

Methods: Data from the National Youth in Transition Database and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System were utilized, which follows a cohort of adolescents in the foster care system. The baseline surveys were conducted at age 17 (2017) and follow-up surveys at ages 19 and 21. Among individuals who completed three waves, youth adjudicated for delinquency or incarcerated before 18 were identified as dual-systems youth (N=1,428) were the focus of this study. In the final analysis, only individuals without missing values on key variables were included (N=1,239, 59.06% female). Controlling for demographic factors, pre-foster care maltreatment history, and placement type and stability, logistic regression analyses examined whether engagement in foster care after meeting the age of majority, employment, school attendance, and connection to supportive adults was associated with self-reported incarceration risk between ages 19 to 21.

Results: Engagement in extended foster care significantly reduces the risk of incarceration for dual-systems youth (OR=0.53; 95% CI: 0.39 - 0.72; p<.001), as does current enrollment and attendance at an educational institution (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.30 - 0.87; p<.05). Demographically, male adolescents face higher incarceration risks (OR=2.67; 95% CI: 2.03 - 3.51; p<.001) compared to females, whereas Hispanic youths exhibit lower likelihood of adult incarceration compared to White adolescents (OR=0.67; 95% CI: 0.46 - 0.97; p<.05).

Conclusions and Implications: Consistent with social control theory, the findings of this study underscore the importance of fostering social bonds among dual-systems youth, particularly through prolonged engagement in foster care beyond the age of emancipation and active involvement in educational pursuits, as effective strategies for reducing the likelihood of later incarceration. In light of the persistent and costly challenges faced by this demographic group, the study emphasizes the urgent need for increased intervention and resource allocation tailored to their specific needs. Moving forward, it is essential for future research to explore potential incentives to encourage extended participation in the foster care system and enrollment in educational programs among dual-systems youth. Moreover, further investigation into the mechanisms that mediate the relationship between extended foster care, education, and reduced risk of incarceration is crucial for informing targeted preventative strategies.