Gendered Dynamics of Fertility and Religiosity: A Longitudinal Study of Married Couples in the United States

Background and Purpose: Declining fertility rates pose significant challenges worldwide, with profound implications for social work practice and policy. Lower fertility rates have been connected to stalled economic indicators and difficulty supporting aging populations. For women specifically, research has shown that they often desire more children than they end up having. Many factors are involved in this complex phenomenon, but one key indicator for higher fertility rates is religious affiliation. This study examines the role of gender in shaping fertility decisions among married couples in the United States. With a focus on the influence of religious affiliation and religiosity, we explore the gendered differences in predictors of fertility early in marriage, and their implications for social work practice and policy.

Methods: Data for this longitudinal study were collected from a nationally representative sample of couples who were newly married in 2014. This study followed 731 heterosexual couples who had no children during the first wave of data collection and remained in the study through the sixth wave in 2022. Fertility was measured by the number of children reported by the couple in 2022. Religiosity was measured as a latent variable combining four religious indicators: the frequency of reading sacred texts, engaging in prayer, and church attendance combined with the importance of spirituality. Covariates included religious affiliation, household income, education level, age, race, and infertility. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to analyze the data and compare the effect sizes for men and women.

Results: The results reveal significant gender differences in the predictors of fertility. When controlling for the other, religiosity (β = .144, p < .05) and certain religious affiliations, such as Catholic (β = .178, p < .01), Protestant (β = .21, p <.01), and Latter-day Saint (β = .274, p < .001) emerged as significant predictors of fertility for wives, whereas for husbands, only being a Latter-day Saint (β = .21, p <.001) was associated with higher fertility rates, at least in the first wave of data. Additionally, higher household income and education level were positively correlated with fertility for both men and women. Conversely, factors such as female age and infertility were negatively associated with fertility outcomes.

Conclusions & Implications: The findings underscore the significant and stronger influence of women's religious beliefs and practices on married couples’ fertility. This could be due to a stronger decision-making power of women in childbearing choices as well as stronger religious engagement among women. This highlights the importance of considering gender dynamics in social work interventions aimed at addressing declining fertility rates or family planning policies. Additionally, the study’s findings that higher household income and education levels are associated with higher fertility diverges from data in the 20^th century, when that effect was largely reversed, though consistent with research using data from the last few decades. Those considering family planning policies should take note of this changing dynamic and the role of gender and religion.