Abstract: Examining the Relationships between State Poverty-Related and Child Welfare Policies and Child Maltreatment Report Rates: A Longitudinal Analysis across US Counties, 2007-2019 (Society for Social Work and Research 29th Annual Conference)

Schedule:

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Boren, Level 4 (Sheraton Grand Seattle)

* noted as presenting author

Hyunil Kim, PhD, Assistant Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL

Dana Hollinshead, PhD, Associate Research Professor, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO

Brett Drake, MSW, PhD, Professor of Data Science for the Social Good in Practice, Washington University in Saint Louis, St. Louis, MO

Rebecca Orsi-Hunt, PhD, Associate Research Professor, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO

John Fluke, PhD, Professor, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO

Rachel Wilson, ME, Data Engineer, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO

Melissa Jonson-Reid, PhD, Professor, Washington University in Saint Louis, St. Louis, MO

Dylan Jones, MSW, PhD Student, Washington University in St. Louis, St Louis, MO

Eunhye Ahn, PhD, Assistant Professor, Washington University in Saint Louis, St. Louis, MO

Background/Purpose:

Poverty strongly correlates with child maltreatment risk, indicating that state poverty-related policies could impact child maltreatment report (CMR) rates. Additionally, state child welfare policies can influence reporting behaviors, further affecting CMR rates. However, the influence of state policies on CMR rates remains understudied. To fill this gap, we investigated within-state longitudinal changes (within-effects) and between-state differences (between-effects) of state poverty-related and child welfare policies on county CMR rates using extensive data spanning all US counties from 2007-2019. Notably, within-effects offer more robust evidence than cross-sectional approaches.

Methods:

We examined county CMR rates annually from 2007-2019 using data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. This included total CMR rates for all children, as well as race/ethnicity-specific (White/Black/Latino) and type-specific (neglect/physical abuse/sexual abuse) rates. We evaluated three state poverty-related policies: minimum wages, Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) rates, and EITC refundability, alongside two state child welfare policies: substantiation evidence levels and universal mandated reporting laws. Controlling for various county-level conditions from the American Community Surveys, multilevel negative binomial models estimated both within-effects and between-effects of state policies on CMR rates, with estimates weighted by county child populations. Since there were no longitudinal changes in state universal mandated reporting laws, we examined only their between-effects.

Results:

Significant within-effects were found for state EITC refundability across most outcomes, except for White CMR rates. Following states making their EITC refundable, CMR rates decreased notably: by 5.3% for total (incident rate ratio [IRR]=0.947), 3.1% for Black (IRR=0.969), 5.2% for Latino (IRR=0.948), 3.0% for neglect (IRR=0.970), 11.5% for physical abuse (IRR=0.885), and 5.0% for sexual abuse (IRR=0.950). State EITC rates also had a significant within-effect, though with smaller effect sizes across fewer outcomes. A 10-percentage-point longitudinal increase in state EITC rates was associated with reductions of 0.4% for total (IRR=0.996), 0.8% for White (IRR=0.992), 0.4% for Latino (IRR=0.996), and 0.6% for neglect (IRR=0.994) CMR rates. A one-dollar longitudinal increase in state minimum wages decreased CMR rates by 1.5% for Black (IRR=0.985), 1.7% for neglect (IRR=0.983), and 0.8% for physical abuse (IRR=0.992). A longitudinal increase in state substantiation evidence levels significantly reduced only White CMR rates by 5.2% (IRR=0.948). Regarding between-effects, states with universal mandated reporting laws showed higher CMR rates for White (IRR=1.35), neglect (IRR=1.77), and sexual abuse (IRR=1.49), compared to states without such laws. The between-effects of all other state policies were not significant for any outcomes.

Conclusions/Implications:

We found significant within-effects of state poverty-related policies, suggesting potential protective effects. However, variations in significance and effect sizes were observed across policies, racial/ethnic groups, and maltreatment types, indicating the need for further investigation into underlying mechanisms. For example, state EITC refundability might offer more benefits for families with lower income taxes, resulting in greater reductions in Black CMR rates. Conversely, state EITC rates might be more advantageous for families with higher income taxes, leading to more reductions in White CMR rates. While state child welfare policies were nonsignificant overall, they showed significance for specific groups and maltreatment types, warranting further exploration.