Exploring the Dynamics of Universal Basic Income Support in South Korea

Background and purpose: The growing support for UBI was particularly accentuated following the distribution of universal Emergency Relief Funds in the spring of 2020. Reflecting this situation, major political parties and presidential hopefuls embraced the concept of UBI, setting the stage for a transformative discourse in the lead-p to the 2022 presidential election. However, this enthusiasm for UBI faced an unexpected turn of events as public support witnessed a decline, coinciding with Lee Jae-myung's loss in the presidential election. Against this backdrop, our research seeks to address pivotal questions surrounding the phenomenon of fluctuating UBI support in South Korea.By delving into the socio-olitical dynamics that shaped the discourse on UBI in South Korea, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the nuanced factors influencing the trajectory of UBI support in the country.

Methods: This study examines the dynamics of support for Universal Basic Income (UBI) in South Korea, using data from the Korea General Social Survey (KGSS) conducted in 2018 and 2021. The KGSS employs a multi-stage area probability sampling method to ensure comprehensive demographic representation, focusing on individuals aged 18 and above. The selection of only the 2018 and 2021 KGSS surveys for this study is purposeful, given their inclusion of targeted inquiries related to UBI. Specifically designed to discern public sentiments and perspectives on this policy concept. Employing an ordered logit model, it seeks to uncover the underlying factors shaping public opinion on UBI. First, using data from 2018 and 2021 respectively, this study analyzes the effects of various socio-political factors on public opinion regarding basic income using ordered logit models. Then a pooled analysis was undertaken, encompassing data from both years (2018 and 2021) under consideration to examine the temporal dynamics of public attitudes towards UBI.

Results: A notable discovery is the decline in support for UBI observed between 2018 and 2021. This decline is closely tied to the rise in political dissatisfaction and the increasing presence of conservative-leaning individuals within the population. Notably, fluctuations in political sentiment exhibit a strong correlation with changes in support for UBI. Had there been no shifts in political satisfaction and orientation during this time frame, it is likely that support for UBI would have seen an uptick.

Conclusion: This study enriches our understanding of the drivers behind support for UBI in South Korea. It emphasizes the critical role of enhancing political satisfaction when introducing groundbreaking policies like UBI. The findings suggest that efforts to bolster political satisfaction can foster greater political trust and facilitate the public's acceptance of novel policy initiatives. Furthermore, the heightened significance of political orientation as a factor in UBI support, particularly in the context of a presidential election, underscores the increasing politicization of the UBI discourse. Thus, to broaden appeal, the study suggests framing UBI as a negative income tax (NIT) or emphasizing the integration of UBI and NIT into a feasible scheme.