Documenting the Population of Transition-Age Youth in California

Background: Transition-age youth (TAY) in foster care, particularly nonminor dependents (NMDs) aged 18 through 21, face unique challenges as they enter adulthood. Understanding the number of young people living in extended foster care as young adults can help anticipate service planning needs within the child welfare system. Part of this involves anticipating how many NMDs exit and reenter care. As a state with the largest population of young people living in foster care and an early adopter of federal policies that extended care, California provides an important context for this analysis. We examine differences in reporting the number of NMDs at both the state and federal levels for California. Additionally, using California administrative data, we document the rate of reentries and the factors associated with reentry after exiting as NMDs.

Methods: We employ two sources of data to examine California’s population of NMDs: 1) national reports from the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) and 2) state reports from the Child Welfare Indicators Project (CCWIP). Additionally, using California state administrative data, we assess the percentage of NMDs who exited and reentered care. We use a generalized linear model to estimate the likelihood of reentry into care. Results are presented as Risk Ratios (RR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI).

Results: According to AFCARS reports, on October 1, 2020, 7.4% of all children and youth in California foster care were NMDs (n≈3,754), while 3% were NMDs nationwide (n≈12,779). In comparison, state reports from CCWIP revealed that on that same day, 7,867 young people in care were NMDs, which is more than double the AFCARS estimate. Additionally, our analysis using California administrative data shows that 7.1% of young people who were in care at age 18 in 2019 exited and reentered by age 21. The likelihood of reentries among NMDs varied based on their experiences while in care as minors. Regression results showed an increased likelihood of reentries among two groups: 1) young people who predominantly lived in congregate care as minors compared to those who lived in non-relative foster homes (RR=1.93; CI = 1.36, 2.75; p<0.001) and 2) those who lived in care for less than a year as minors compared to those who were in care for a longer period (RR=1.45; CI = 1.08, 1.94; p < 0.05).

Conclusions/Implications: The discrepancy in reporting across data suggests that California’s NMD population may represent nearly a third of the total NMD population in the U.S, if other states are reporting all NMDs served, not restricted to those eligible for Title IV-E funding. Further, administrative data show that in states where reentries are allowed, reentries can be accounted. The 2016 CalYOUTH study surveyed TAY and found an estimated one-sixth had ever exited extended care and reentered by age 19. The numbers reported here are lower indicating there may be an undercount of reentries in administrative data, reentries may be conflated with placement moves as reported by TAY, or there may be a decrease in reentries over time.