From Care to Custody: Exploring the Incarceration Pathways of Youth in Foster Care

Background/Purpose: Youth in foster care age 14 and older are at risk of “aging out” of care. This population is eligible for Title IV-E independent living services, which aim to support their transition into adulthood. However, these older foster youth still face significant challenges. For example, in a sample of 17-year-olds in care, 18.7% experienced homelessness, 25.4% were referred for substance misuse, and 30.9% had been confined in jail, prison, or juvenile detention facilities (i.e., incarcerated). In addition, youth who are male, Black, or Hispanic are at greater risk to experience incarceration compared female or White youth.

This study aims to (1) describe the prevalence of incarceration in young adulthood for youth who were in foster care at age 17; (2) assess the extent to which adult incarceration correlates with gender, race /ethnicity, placement instability, and the youth’s permanency outcome; and (3) test whether race/ethnicity moderates the impact of permanency outcomes on incarceration risk in young adulthood.

Methods: This prospective secondary analysis uses data from three cohorts of the National Youth in Transition Database outcome survey. All U.S. youth in care at age 17 in 2011, 2014, and 2017 were eligible to participate. Wave 1 participants are recruited for two additional waves at age 19 and 21. A total of 77,357 youth participated in Wave 1. This study’s sample included participants who responded to the incarceration item at Wave 1 and either Wave 2 or 3, yielding a final sample of 24,572. We used logistic regression with bias-adjusted confidence intervals (CI resample = 15,000) to test associations and moderation effects. Given the higher incarceration rates for males at each wave, multivariate analyses were performed separately for each gender.

Results: By age 21, lifetime prevalence of incarceration was 54.8% for males and 32.2% for females. Among males, incarceration was significantly associated with being Black (White is the race/ethnicity reference category, OR = 1.2), experiencing > 2 placement (< 2 moves is the placement instability reference category, OR = 1.5), and being reunified with family (aging out is the placement outcome reference category, OR = 1.8). Among females, incarceration was negatively associated with Latinx ethnicity (OR = 0.7) and positively associated with placement instability (OR = 1.6) and reunification (OR = 1.5). Moderation analysis in the male subsample indicated a stronger positive association between reunification and incarceration for Black (OR = 1.32) and Hispanic (OR = 1.35) youth compared to White youth. The moderation analysis for females showed no significant differences among the primary race/ethnicity categories.

Conclusion and Implications: The results indicate that youth who reunite with their families have a higher risk of incarceration in early adulthood compared to those who age out, with this risk being more pronounced for Black and Hispanic males. This suggests that, despite eligibility, reunified youth may lack access to the same independent living services available to those who age out. These findings are consistent with a recent study, underscoring the need to assess the accessibility and quality of independent living services offered to reunified youth.