Does Timing of Incarceration Matter during the Transition to Adulthood?: Longitudinal Analysis of Incarceration Effects on Key Life Domains

Background and Purpose: Prior research documented that transition-age young people (TAY) in foster care have elevated rates of legal system involvement (Cusick et al., 2012), which casts a dark shadow on their successful transition to adulthood and hinders adult opportunities (e.g., education, employment, housing, social relationship). However, little research has examined the timing of incarceration and its association with later outcomes during this critical transition period. This study examines the association between the timing of prior incarceration and adult outcomes within key life domains among TAY.

Methods: This study focused on 626 CalYOUTH participants who were interviewed at ages 17 (Wave 1) and 23 (Wave 4). Adult outcomes were measured at Wave 4 (age 23), and predictors were measured at Waves 1, 2, and 3 (ages 17, 19, and 21, respectively). The adult outcomes comprised seven measures of life domains: school enrollment; employment; homelessness; substance use disorder; mental health disorder; parental status; and incarceration. The predictors included three binary self-report measures of timing of incarceration: Wave 1 (prior to Wave 1), Waves 2 and 3 (since last interview). Other covariates included youths’ demographic characteristics and foster care characteristics. Binary logistic regression examined associations between prior incarceration and adult outcomes, controlling for covariates. Additionally, analyses were stratified by gender to compare the association patterns between males and females. All analyses used survey weights to adjust for the survey design.

Results: About 24% reported experiencing incarceration prior to baseline interviews at age 17, and 10.5% and 11.4% since last interviews at ages 19 and 21, respectively. At age 23, 22% were enrolled in school, 59% were employed, 25% experienced homelessness since last interview, 15% screened positive for a substance use disorder, 29% screened positive for a mental health disorder, 42% had living children, and 13% had been incarcerated since last interviews. Findings show temporal differences in the associations between prior incarceration and adult outcomes. The estimated odds of three outcomes were predicted by recent incarceration (Wave 3): employment (OR=0.42), homelessness (OR=5.23), and substance use disorder (OR=3.14). Analysis also revealed gender-specific findings. Only among females, the presence of a mental health disorder was predicted by recent incarceration (OR=2.77 at Wave 3), while parental status was predicted by juvenile incarceration (OR=2.35 at Wave 1). Additionally, incarceration at Wave 4 was predicted by recent incarceration among males and by prior incarceration at all prior ages among females (all p<.05). School enrollment was not predicted by prior incarceration for either males or females.

Conclusions: We find timing of incarceration matters during the transition to adulthood and, at times, the association is gender specific. From a developmental perspective, findings about the association between timing of incarceration and adult outcomes highlight optimal periods for prevention and intervention. Additionally, gender-specific approaches could be beneficial in addressing differential effects of incarceration on psychological wellbeing and relational contexts. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of efforts within the child welfare system to mitigate risks of incarceration in promoting positive adult outcomes.