Unpacking Students First-Term of College: Exploring the Role of First-Term Gpa As a Mediator between Course Attendance and College Persistence and Completion

Background/Purpose: A college degree is often seen as a path toward economic mobility. However, equity gaps in college degree attainment persist across income, race and ethnicity, and students first in their family to attend college. Further understanding of academic factors within students’ first term in college, before students drop out, is critical to closing these equity gaps. Currently, limited research exists on the relationship between students’ first-term in college course attendance, grade point average (GPA), and persistence or graduation, especially among underrepresented students. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between students' attendance rate in their first term of college and persistence/graduation after four years of enrollment as mediated by first-term college GPA at a diverse, Hispanic-serving Institution (HSI).

Methods:

The study uses institutional data for entering first-time freshmen between fall 2015 and spring 2019 from a private, predominately minority (72% Latinx, 20% Black/African American, 78% First-Generation) HSI (n=1,679). Predictors examined in relation to persistence /graduation four years from the first term enrolled are first-term college GPA, first-term attendance rate across all courses enrolled, and high school GPA (HS GPA) as a measure of pre-college academic readiness. A mediation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between attendance and persistence/graduation after four years of enrollment and whether this relationship was mediated by first-term college GPA. Given the focus of the study on equity, race, gender, expected family contribution (EFC), and first-generation status were used as covariates in predicting first-term GPA.

Results:

The model indicated first-term attendance was a significant predictor of persisting/graduating. Students with first-term attendance rates between 80-90% were more likely to persist/graduate four years after enrollment (OR=3.94, p<0.001) compared to students below 80% attendance and students with 100% attendance were 11.6 times more likely to graduate/persist (p<0.001). The effect of first-term attendance on persisting/graduating was almost entirely mediated by first-term GPA. The proportion of the total effect mediated decreased as attendance rate increased. At an attendance rate below 80%, the proportion mediated by first-term GPA was 96.5%, decreasing to 81.5% for first-term attendance rates equal to 100%. Among the covariates, Race/ethnicity was a significant predictor for first-term GPA for Black/African American students (b=-.267, p<0.001), along with being male (b=-0.14, p<0.001) and HS GPA (b=0.427, p<0.001). Contrary to prior research, first-generation and EFC were not significant predictors of first-term GPA.

Conclusions and Implications: The findings suggest that having higher attendance rates in the first term significantly increases the likelihood of having a higher first-term GPA, which, in turn, increases the odds of persistence/graduation four years after enrolling in college. With recent national headlines around decreasing attendance for students across all levels of education post-COVID, these findings suggest institutions need to pay close attention to student attendance, especially within students’ first term of college in order to increase student persistence and graduation rates. The findings also provide direction for institutions to look at pre-matriculation support for students with lower high school GPAs, especially Black males, in order to increase success once enrolled in college.