The Relationship between Violent Political Rhetoric and Suicide Rates in the US

Background and Purpose: Between 2011 and 2022, about 539,810 Americans took their lives via suicide. In 2022 at least 49,449 persons died by suicide, and between 2011 and 2022 the adjusted suicide rate in the United States increased from 39,518 to about 49,449. The numbers recorded for 2022 were the highest ever recorded. Numerous factors have been found to be associated with suicide, including individual level factors such as depression, hopelessness, drug use and gun ownership. Environmental and contextual factors have also been found to be associated with suicide rates, such as temperature and discrimination, and there have been periodicities found in suicide rates. Recent research has shown violent political rhetoric (VPR) is associated with mass shootings and police killings of civilians. Recent research on VPR has found that the rates of VPR in the United States have profoundly increased to levels not seen since the Civil War. These findings led the author to speculate that there may be a relationship between VPR and suicide rates. The current study explored this yet to be investigated relationship.

Methods: This study was a secondary analysis of suicide rate data from the Centers for Disease Control online database. Data on suicide rates for each of the four Census Regions was obtained for the years 2011 through 2019. Data were also obtained on variables previously found to be associated with suicide, including temperature and gun ownership rates, and VPR data were obtained from a recent study of VPR in the US. The data analyses used both bias corrected panel model and multi-level analysis methods. There were four panels, one for each of the four US Census Regions, and 105 monthly measures of suicide rates. Preliminary analyses revealed strong 12-month and 6-month periodicities in suicide rates in all four regions, so terms for these periodicities were included in analyses.

Results: Both the panel and two-level hierarchical linear models were statistically significant beyond the 0.0001 level. Results further showed VPR associated with suicide rates in all four census regions, controlling for all other variables in the models. Statistical interaction terms indicated the relationship between VPR and suicide rates was strongest in the Southern Census region, and weakest in the Northeastern Region. It was also found that gun ownership, temperature, and 12- and 6-month periodicities were statistically significantly associated with suicide rates. Post analysis tests of assumptions of the panel and multilevel models were consistent with model assumptions being met.

Conclusions and Implications: The author speculates that VPR may evoke fear and a sense of vulnerability in those targeted by the VPR. This may then lead to a sense of feeling trapped and hopeless, which can lead to suicidal thinking and other suicidal behaviors. These findings suggest social workers need to develop methods and programs to reduce the use of VPR by political and media leaders. The results further suggest social workers collaborate with media figures to humanize persons targeted by VPR, which frequently dehumanizes the targets of the VPR. Other implications are considered and discussed.