(WITHDRAWN) A Spatial Analysis of the Arrest of Young People across Philadelphia Neighborhoods and the Role of Structural Factors

The combined effects of neighborhood redlining, injustices in policing, and the COVID pandemic all contribute to the syndemics of poor outcomes experienced by Philadelphia’s youth. Following a previous study that was conducted to examine the co-occurrence of youth arrest rates and reports of suspected abuse and neglect to Philadelphia’s child abuse hotline, a series of neighborhood studies was conducted to highlight the neighborhoods where services and resources can be more equitably distributed. This neighborhood study aims to understand factors that contribute to juvenile arrests and to compare results of arrests by location with arrests by home address from 2019 and 2022.

Data from city-owned databases was visualized using ArcGIS and a statistical analysis was conducted to better understand of the factors that contribute to youth arrests and how they relate to arrest location and home address. Arrest rates for each census tract were calculated and categorized in quartiles using the Jenks Optimization Method. High arrest areas were identified as a census tract with fifteen or more arrests. Maps were then created to show the relationship between high youth arrests, poverty, commercial corridors, arrest location, and home address of the arrested youth. A series of linear regression analyses were conducted to understand the correlation between high arrest rates and the different factors that contributed to arrests.

The results demonstrate a relationship between race and home address of those who are arrested. Approximately 35% of the variation in arrest rates by home address can be explained by differences in rates of high Black residents in the census tract. This indicates that race has moderate explanatory power in predicting arrests by home address. Conversely, modeling suggests that approximately 40% of the variation in arrest rates by home address can be explained by differences in rates of high White residents in the census tract. This can be explained by a percentage point increase of White residents in a census tract is associated with a decrease in the rate of arrests by home address by 0.14. We also found that the number of children in a household plays a significant role in the increased risk of youth getting arrested. The results indicate that youth who are arrested in census tracts with higher rates of Black residents are more likely to live in households with multiple children.

The racial identity of youth and the racial makeup of the census tracts in which they live, and play are predictors of arrest and entry into the juvenile justice system. Historically Black neighborhoods are systemically impacted by resource deprivation and disinvestment. Structural factors are shifting the juvenile justice landscape by concentrating youth arrests in already marginalized and minoritized neighborhoods. This study supports the need for the allocation of resources in the most vulnerable neighborhoods in Philadelphia to address the effects of it.