Measuring Gentrification to Study Recidivism

For the first time in history, gentrification is occurring during climate change and after 20 years of mass incarceration. Both instances complicate and problematize traditional means to measure gentrification. For instance, in neighborhood studies examining criminalized behavior (also referred to as crime, recidivism, etc.), high rates of home owners, affluent residents, residents with professional occupations, and expensive housing stock are correlated with less crime, lower recidivism rates, and more collective efficacy. In gentrifying neighborhoods, these same neighborhood characteristics are associated with destabilizing the neighborhood, displacement, and increased risk of arrest and re-incarceration among original residents seen as less desirable. In another example, climate displacement (the forced relocation of individuals and communities as a result of climate change) begs researchers to recognize the many forms of displacement. Participants will discuss the methodological implications for identifying gentrifiable neighborhoods based not just on traditional measures (e.g., disinvestment and the presence of below market value properties) but instead based on their proximity to natural resources (e.g., such as fresh water) and their distance from extreme climate effects (e.g., wild fires). This discussion will be aided by a case study of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Longstanding Black neighborhoods are currently at risk of gentrification, aided by 20 years of mass incarceration, and their proximity to Lake Michigan, a natural resources that is undergoing commodification (e.g., selling and shipping of water to areas that need it).

In this workshop participants will review five current methods to measure gentrification (as a process and as a static neighborhood characteristic) and the pros and cons of each using the tenets of critical race theory, Black ecology and abolitionist geography. GIS illustrations will show how the same neighborhoods can be gentrifiable, gentrifying, and gentrified depending on the definition used. Examples from the City of Milwaukee will illustrate the challenges with low variability within the dataset and implications for research design and analysis.

Finally, measuring gentrification in ways that support policy development and implementation will be discussed. Updated gentrification measures must allow policymakers and residents at risk for displacement alike to track and monitor displacement (and its many forms, and stages) and assess whether anti-displacement plans are effective. An over-reliance on census data, which is available every 10 years, has impaired real time analysis. Participants will discuss possible workarounds to provide timely data to decision makers and resident leaders.