Pathways from College-Graduation-Belief to Actual Enrollment across Race-Ethnic Groups in Emerging Adulthood

Introduction

Research indicates that Black and Hispanic youths are increasingly closing the gap with white peers in college aspirations. These aspirations, however, may not translate into actual college enrollment due to structural and systemic barriers. Policy interventions have aimed to enhance college-going efficacy, with an emphasis on academic preparation. Recent studies, however, highlight the overlooked role of self-efficacy in shaping enrollment outcomes. Prior research has examined these factors within specific groups, leaving a gap in understanding how pathways from aspiration to enrollment may differ. This study investigates whether academic preparedness mediates the relationship between adolescents' college-graduation expectation and enrollment, and explores racial-ethnic variations in this pathway.

Methods

This study utilizes data from the Future of Families & Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal study of children born in medium-to-large U.S. cities. The final sample comprised 1,493 young adults followed from birth through their early 20s. The primary predictor was ninth graders' self-perceived likelihood of completing college. The outcome variable was actual college enrollment by age 22. Mediators included average ninth-grade GPA and the number of advanced placement (AP) courses taken in grades 10–12. Multivariate logistic regressions were conducted, beginning with the direct effect of belief on enrollment, followed by mediation analyses using bootstrapping and moderation tests for racial-ethnic differences. Models controlled for gender, first-generation status and household income.

Results

Analyses found significant main effects for ninth grade college-graduation belief (OR = 1.72, p<.001), GPA (OR = 2.37, p<.001), and number of AP courses (OR = 1.14, p<.001) on actual college enrollment by age 22. The addition of interaction terms to the model, however, revealed that only GPA and belief in college graduation remained significant with no main effect for AP participation. Belief had a stronger influence on eventual enrollment for white students compared to Black (OR = 0.42, p = .021) and Hispanic students (OR = .37, p = .014). Notably, belief (OR = 1.40, p = .138) had no direct effect on enrollment for Hispanic youths. Moderated-mediations indicated various belief-enrollment pathways across race-ethnicities: Among white students, neither GPA nor AP participation significantly mediated this relationship; for Black students, belief (OR = 1.60, p < .01) influenced enrollment partially through its impact on GPA (β = 0.072, 95% CI [0.037, 0.106], p < .001); among Hispanic students, both GPA (β = 0.056, 95% CI [0.012, 0.099], p = .012) and AP participation (β = 0.074, 95% CI [0.026, 0.121], p = .002) fully mediated the effect of belief on enrollment.

Conclusions / Implications

Our findings underscore the complex interplay between education aspirations/belief, academic preparedness, and actual enrollment, revealing significant racial-ethnic differences. Black students rely on academic performance (GPA) to translate their belief into enrollment, whereas for Hispanic students, academic effort (AP) plays a greater role. Race continues to shape these predictors, with GPA and AP being less important for white student outcomes. These nuanced pathways highlight persistent structural inequalities in the education system and emphasize the need for interventions tailored to the unique challenges faced by racialized students.